The problem for Fianna Fáil is that its support has stagnated at an appallingly low level, writes NOEL WHELAN
THE FALL of 1 per cent in Fianna Fáil's support in this weekend's Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll is of itself statistically insignificant. It is well within the margin of error and some in the party may seek to draw comfort from the fact that, notwithstanding the severity of last month's emergency Budget, its poll figure has remained largely unchanged.
The problem is that their support has stagnated at an appallingly low level. Fianna Fáil’s support, as measured by TNS/mrbi, has halved in the last 12 months. It was 42 per cent in May 2008 and it is now 21 per cent.
Even though the headline party support figures are based on questions about how those polled would vote in a general election, the fact that the Fianna Fáil figure is so low three weeks before polling day in the local, European and byelections must be terrifying for the party’s candidates in those contests.
In the 2004 local elections Fianna Fáil won 32 per cent of the first-preference vote and lost 80 city and county seats. The last mrbi poll before those local and European elections was published in this newspaper on June 5th, 2004, a week before polling on June 11th.
Fianna Fáil support in that poll was measured at 33 per cent, a full one-third higher than it is this weekend. In that 2004 poll, satisfaction with the Ahern-led government was measured at a very low 34 per cent. However, this is three times the satisfaction rate which this weekend’s poll shows for the current Cowen-led government.
TNS/mrbi applies an adjustment to the Fianna Fáil figure in order to compensate for the traditional overstatement of Fianna Fáil’s support. It can be argued that this statistical adjustment, designed at a time when Fianna Fáil was the largest party, may now actually cause the party’s support to be understated.
However, any such effect is only marginal. Fianna Fáil’s vote has been measured at similarly low levels by other polling organisations in recent months. Even if the true level of support for the party is a couple of percentage points higher, it will still be an appalling outcome for them if it is reflected across the various elections on June 5th.
Privately, senior Fianna Fáil figures hope that they will get 25 per cent in the local elections. They are hoping that because they currently have only four MEPs and because they lost so many local seats five years ago, that they cannot lose much this time around even with a significant drop in their vote. Such hopes appear extremely optimistic, however; indeed, they now border on the delusional.
The Fine Gael surge in this weekend’s poll is more worrying for Fianna Fáil than that experienced by Labour in last February’s poll. Fine Gael is a larger and more worthy opponent which Fianna Fáil faces in each local electoral area. Support lost to Fine Gael is also harder to get back.
The most significant shifts in this poll are those between Fine Gael and Labour. When the last TNS/mrbi poll was published in February the headlines focused on the dramatic 10 per cent rise in Labour’s support as against the previous poll in November 2008. Much of the analysis attributed the Labour rise to public sector fury at the pensions levy and to Gilmore’s success in articulating wider public anger towards the Government. Now 4 per cent of that 10 per cent rise has fallen away from Labour.
It has not gone back to Fianna Fáil, but has instead moved to Fine Gael. This weekend’s poll is still good for Labour as it is still five points up on its 2007 election performance and Gilmore is still by far the most popular party leader.
In the last 24 hours some have sought to attribute the sharp rise in Fine Gael’s support to a George Lee effect. However, this is just more of the hyperbole in which many of Lee’s former media colleagues have engaged when asked to comment on his candidature.
On Morning Ireland yesterday, Labour’s Joan Burton did Alex White no favours when, in an effort to explain away her own party’s drop in the poll, she too talked up the Lee contribution to the Fine Gael surge.
It is 13 weeks since the last TNS/mrbi poll and it is simplistic to suggest that the changes reflected in Fine Gael’s figures this weekend are attributable only to the events of the last fortnight.
The acquisition of Lee is likely to win a seat for Fine Gael in Dublin South and has given the party’s candidates in the other contests a significant morale boost, but the 6 per cent rise in Fine Gael support flows from a more complex set of underlying factors.
Fine Gael’s vote has been rising steadily since last June. Not only has the party absorbed most of the 3 or 4 per cent that the now defunct Progressive Democrats used to attract in polls, more significantly Fine Gael’s response to the economic crisis has been more sophisticated and less populist than that of the Labour Party.
The electorate is settling down from its initial shock and fury at the change in the country’s economic circumstances. The people are still livid at the incumbent Government, but they are looking for more than opposition from the alternative and are taking a more favourable look at Fine Gael.
Fine Gael at 38 per cent is currently a full 16 percentage points higher than they were in the last mrbi poll published before the 2004 local and European elections.
Enda Kenny had a good set of election results in June 2004; he looks set to bring his party much further in June 2009.