Use of adjustments mean that Labour's impressive jump is somewhat overstated, writes NOEL WHELAN
IF LAST January’s Ipsos/MRBI poll was a case of “move along now, nothing to see here”, yesterday’s poll is indeed equivalent to the scene of a political earthquake.
The poll contains three significant statistical shifts. The first is the dramatic fall back in Fianna Fáil support.
Having polled 42 per cent in the 2007 general election, Fianna Fáil’s vote fell dramatically in autumn 2008 to 25 per cent. By September 2008 it had fallen further to an historic low of 17 per cent.
Since then the party stabilised and nudged up gradually to 22 per cent last January. Now it has plummeted back again to the 17 per cent historic low.
Having taken the tough decisions, had the opportunity of a reshuffle and engaged more actively with media, Fianna Fáil and its leader are back where they were a year ago.
They just cannot get away from the medium-term legacy issue of responsibility for the economic crisis. The public didn’t have to wait for the Honohan or Watson-Regling reports to form a view on whom they held politically accountable for the economic, banking and employment crisis. In the minds of voters, Fianna Fáil takes all the blame and gets little credit for the corrective measures.
Fine Gael had been above 30 per cent in these polls for over two years but has slipped to 28 per cent, down four points on last January. This decline will worry them even more because the slippage coincides with that of Fianna Fail.
Particularly disturbing for Fine Gael is the fact that the Labour Party has leap-frogged them and taken the top slot for the first time in the history of Irish polling.
In seeking to explain the poll shifts, it is important to avoid focusing only on most recent happenings.
Compared to gaps between previous Ipsos/MRBI polls, the last six months have been relatively quiet in Irish politics. There have been silly political skirmishes over the resignations of George Lee, Willie O’Dea and Trevor Sargent.
Then came the Minister for Finance’s March statement about the banking crisis, which revealed the full extent of the black hole in Anglo Irish Bank.
More recently a new spate of HSE-related controversies have erupted about childcare services and early pregnancy scans.
Of these events, Anglo Irish Bank is probably the most politically potent. That and the recent focus on the causes of the crisis explains the fall in Fianna Fáil support.
The differences between the support levels of the three main parties in this poll and those measured in monthly Red C polls for the Sunday Business Post since January, are interesting. In the latter, Fianna Fáil has slipped from 27 per cent to 23 per cent over six months. This is consistent with but somewhat smaller than the fall measured by Ipsos/MRBI.
Labour’s Red C rise is less dramatic than that suggested by Ipsos/MRBI. The former had Labour at 22 per cent at the end of May, 10 points below where MRBI now has them. The rise in the Red C polls, coupled with the positive reception for Gilmore’s televised party conference address in March, will have given Labour greater credibility in the minds of voters questioned by Ipsos/MRBI.
The good news for Labour is that the showing in this poll of itself will enhance the party’s political standing further at least in the short-term.
There is every reason to believe that Eamon Gilmore is still the primary reason for Labour’s surge, although the fact that his own approval ratings have stagnated while his party’s vote share jumped is somewhat curious.
Since January Fine Gael had been at about 33 per cent in the Red C polls but fell to 30 per cent at the end of May, just above where Ipsos/MRBI puts them at 28 per cent.
Some explanation for these differences may lie in methodology; Red C polls are conducted by telephone while Ipsos/MRBI do home interviews.
The other key distinction is that since 1999, MRBI has applied an adjustment to reflect a perceived overstatement of Fianna Fáil support. However, as has been argued on this page on a number of occasions since autumn 2008, this adjustment is not appropriate in these extraordinarily volatile political times.
The adjustment designed in 1999, rather than correcting, has actually been distorting the results in a manner that appears to understate Fianna Fáil’s support and overstate that for the Labour Party.
In this week’s poll Fianna Fáil’s core vote stands at 16 per cent whereas the adjusted figure is 17 per cent. The Fianna Fáil vote measured on a straightforward allocation of the ‘Don’t Knows’ however is 21 per cent.
Labour’s core vote in this poll is an impressive 21 per cent but the adjusted figure is an extraordinary 32 per cent. On a straightforward allocation of the ‘Don’t Knows’ Labour would be at 29 per cent.
None of this takes away from the significance of the Labour surge or the Fianna Fáil decline but it means the shifts, while spectacular, may not be as spectacular as they seem.
Fine Gael, however, will draw some comfort from the fact that the adjustment means Labour’s support is somewhat overstated.
Interestingly Ipsos/MRBI announced yesterday that they are reviewing the adjustment and will introduce what they call a “new approach” for their next Irish Times poll. While this is welcome, it will complicate the ability to compare the next poll with this one.
Such comparisons will be important and all polls between now and next autumn will be watched closely, especially by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael backbenchers.
If they confirm these trends then the leadership issue will come centre stage in both of the main parties.