There can be little principled basis to the adjudication by Dr Mowlam, endorsed by the Government, that the IRA's ceasefire has not broken down. The organisation has been involved in up to five murders and scores of so-called punishment beatings. Against the background of the decommissioning controversy, it has actually been seeking to restock its arsenal by importing new weapons from the United States. The IRA is clearly in breach of at least two of the criteria which should bind the Secretary of State in the release of prisoners under the Sentencing Act. It has been involved in acts of violence and it is engaged in preparations for further possible violence.
Dr Mowlam probably came closer to expressing her own real convictions when she declared that if the existing peace is not perfect it is better than no peace. The IRA has killed, maimed and mutilated. Loyalist paramilitaries have carried on a campaign of assassination and random pipe-bombings. But there is relative safety and a restoration of something close to normality in most areas. Large-scale engagements, ambushes and bombings have been stopped. Nobody can deny that this is greatly preferable to what happened heretofore.
The Secretary of State's decision averts an immediate crisis in the peace process. Had she come to a different position, she would be under pressure to halt or slow the release of IRA prisoners. Mr Martin McGuinness effectively threatened that such a move would mean that Sinn Fein would refuse to participate in next month's review under the chairmanship of Senator George Mitchell. Dr Mowlam has brought a storm of unionist fury upon her head. But she has almost certainly ensured that there is at least a framework for Senator Mitchell to begin to work upon when he returns.
It is not easy to refute the allegations that the Secretary of State - with Dublin's tacit support - has bowed in the face of the Sinn Fein threat; that the republican axis has now been sent the message that it can simultaneously play both the political and the violence cards; that it can murder those whom it considers to be within its jurisdiction or whose activities transgress its ordinances. Indeed, Dr Mowlam's handling of questions at her press conference indicated little conviction on her own part in what she was saying.
A further, dangerous step has been taken towards blurring the line between politics and militarism. Democratic values are further diluted as the two governments seek to stretch the fabric of the peace process in order to lock in those who come from a tradition of violence, declaring that they wish to take the political path. The gaps in the Secretary of State's logic are glaring. Her assertion that she has "come close" to judging the IRA ceasefire to be "deeply flawed" is limp.
This decision is pure pragmatism. But those who believe that there can be a final push to a fully peaceful settlement will be slow to say that the Secretary of State has done the wrong thing. The relatively muted response from unionist spokesmen confirms that the more forward-looking elements in their ranks also want another chance to see if business can be done under Senator Mitchell's hand next month.