INSIDE POLITICS:With negatives against all leading contenders for the EU presidency, John Bruton could come into consideration, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE ENTRY of former taoiseach John Bruton into the race for the newly created post of president of the European Council livened up the two-day EU summit in Brussels from an Irish point of view. It also focused attention on the scale of the political and diplomatic intrigue involved in the filling of such a post.
Bruton is generally regarded as having a very outside chance of winning the position but his candidature has certainly attracted international attention. His letter to the 27 member states stating his credentials for the job propelled him into the contest and at this stage there is no knowing how it will turn out.
When the European Council meeting began on Thursday the leading candidates for the position, created under the Lisbon Treaty, were former British prime minister Tony Blair and the current prime minister of Luxembourg, Jean-Claude Juncker. It now looks distinctly possible that the two could take each other down and open up the race to a wide field. Ominously for both, Nicolas Sarkozy of France remarked yesterday that “the names of the first wave are not necessarily the winners of the last wave”. Blair was initially regarded as the favourite because the job was being teed up for a high-profile politician from the Socialist Group; given that the president of the European Commission, José Manuel Barroso, comes from the conservative European People’s Party, (Christian Democrats) the new post was earmarked for the second major grouping.
However, strong antipathy to the Blair candidature has come from various parts of the EU and there has not even been much enthusiasm from his fellow Socialists. Smaller countries fear their interests would not be represented by a high-profile president, while Chancellor Angela Merkel in Germany has shown no enthusiasm for Blair.
Although Blair was initially backed by Sarkozy, in more recent times the French president has pointed up the problem that Britain is outside the euro zone. Only UK prime minister Gordon Brown and Italian leader Silvio Berlusconi have expressed support for Blair and that will not be enough.
Another blow for his prospects was the view expressed by Spanish Socialist prime minister José Luis Zapatero that the other new post being created by the Lisbon Treaty, the high representative for foreign affairs, should go to a Socialist. If that happens, the council presidency will go to a conservative and Blair will be ruled out. The leading candidate from the conservative side is Juncker, the longest-serving prime minister in the EU. He is a declared candidate and has been canvassing in opposition to Blair. However, if Blair is ruled out his supporters may well take their revenge by blocking the euro-federalist Juncker, who incurred the wrath of Sarkozy last year on the issue of banking reform.
If the early front-runners drop out, and the high commissionership is slotted for a Socialist, then the race would be wide open and likely to go to an EPP politician. One leading contender would be Dutch prime minister Jan-Peter Balkenende. He has led four successive governments in the Netherlands and, if he is interested in the post, would be a serious contender.
The same applies to Swedish prime minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, who will now be in charge of compiling the shortlist for the job. The names of a number of former leaders are being bandied about, including Wolfgang Schüssel of Austria, Paavo Lipponen of Finland and Spain’s Felipe González. All have impressive records but have strong negative factors as well. The former president of Latvia, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, is being promoted by her government but the prime ministers who make the decisions are expected to keep the post for one of their own: current or former heads of government.
With negatives as well as positives being chalked up against all the likely contenders, Bruton could come into serious consideration. The negative for him is that it is more than a decade since he was taoiseach and he is a virtual unknown as far as the prime ministers of central and eastern Europe are concerned.
On the positive side his tenure as EU ambassador to Washington has proved very successful and his term as taoiseach looks better and better with every year that passes. If he had won, rather than narrowly lost, the 1997 general election Ireland would in all likelihood be a much better place than it is today, given the prudent economic strategy followed by his government.
In the memo accompanying his letter to governments seeking support for his presidency bid Bruton emphasised that as taoiseach he had behaved as a “chairman” rather than in a “presidential” way. This was clearly designed to play on the fears of many EU governments that Blair would inevitably adopt a high-profile presidential role that they simply don’t want to see.
The Irish Government initially appeared uncertain about how to treat Bruton’s intervention but Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin ultimately made it clear they will back him if he emerges as a realistic contender.
For that to happen the Swedish presidency will have to put his name on the shortlist that will be submitted to the next council meeting. A great deal of horse trading will take place before that happens and Bruton’s contacts in the EPP, which he served as vice-president, will have to intervene to get him on the list.
In the meantime the Taoiseach will have to make up his mind about the identity of the next Irish commissioner. His talks in Brussels over the past two days should have clarified what kind of portfolio will be available. Pat Cox must be a real contender, given his European standing and political reputation.
Government sources have been emphasising that Barroso was hoping that a sufficient number of women commissioners should be nominated and that prompted speculation about Máire Geoghegan Quinn. If gender is the deciding factor then Catherine Day, the Irish woman who heads the EU civil service, could be the choice.