THE ROT has set in for the Government as Fianna Fáil backbenchers scramble for rural votes and try to put distance between themselves and contentious legislation. The defection of Mattie McGrath over a ban on stag hunting represents the latest manifestation of a failure of discipline within the party. Stepping outside the parliamentary party and becoming an “Independent” Fianna Fáil TD has become so attractive that five members have done so since the election.
In normal circumstances, such tactical defections would not matter because those involved continue to vote for the Government. But the Coalition also depends on support from other Independents. And, as Fianna Fáil discipline fractures, people like Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy-Rea have altered their long-term commitments with an eye to a general election. When that contest takes place, they have no intention of being associated in the public mind with an unpopular government.
It would be wrong to conclude the Coalition Government is in imminent danger of implosion, despite Fianna Fáil complaints about the Dog Breeding Establishments Bill, due to be enacted next week. That legislation, designed to regulate so-called “puppy farms”, provides for inspection, regulation and micro-chipping of animals and has been opposed by greyhound and hunting-dog breeders. Amendments are being drafted by John Gormley. When the dust eventually settles, the Bill is expected to pass but relations between Fianna Fáil and the Green Party will have soured.
Accusing the Green Party of an anti-rural bias is a facile presentation. These relatively minor pieces of legislation were accepted by all Fianna Fáil TDs in a recently revised programme for government. Brian Cowen’s leadership and Fianna Fáil’s unpopularity with the electorate are more potent causes for the current disaffection. Political fear and ambition run deep at Leinster House and many seats are vulnerable. Because of that, involvement by members of the Lemass Group in the current controversy has been instructive. Regarded as a vehicle for dissent within the Fianna Fáil parliamentary party, the Lemass Group helped to kick-start the backbench revolt by inviting the hunting lobby to address Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators. Founding member John McGuinness has been a trenchant critic of Mr Cowen.
There is no doubt that Mr Cowen’s authority within Fianna Fáil has been weakened by recent events. Seven TDs, including Mr McGrath, criticised the legislation in the Dáil last week and threatened possible mutiny. If they had not been driven to vote confidence in the Taoiseach by a Fine Gael motion some days earlier, the situation would have been more serious. What we appear to be witnessing is a rehearsal for an eventual “heave” against Mr Cowen. Fianna Fáil dissidents have no intention of bringing down the Government by rejecting their own legislation. That would be the equivalent of turkeys voting for Christmas. They want to recover public support and postpone a general election for as long as possible. But they want it held under a new party leader.