The main message from Mr Romano Prodi's intervention in Ireland's debate on the Nice Treaty this week is that a second Irish No vote would render it null and void. Making that clear in Dublin and Cork yesterday, he said this would create serious problems and tensions in Europe, because politically it would block the way to enlarging the European Union. His comments in an interview with this newspaper that legally it would be possible to enlarge without the Nice Treaty have created a furore around Europe and prompted questions about his judgment by senior figures who angrily dispute this on legal and especially on political grounds.
The last week has seen a real deepening of Ireland's debate on the Nice Treaty and the future of Europe. The issue has gone to the centre of the political agenda and has clearly engaged the attention of voters in a way that is utterly different from the referendum campaign. Mr Prodi welcomed the initiation of this debate and constructively contributed to it in his address at University College Cork yesterday. He added that he wished it had taken place before the referendum and not after it.
He is right about this. Ireland's debate on the future of Europe (in preparation for the next Inter-Governmental Conference in 2004 which has a radical political and constitutional agenda) was played down by the Government as premature during the referendum campaign. A significant number of people voted against the treaty or abstained from voting because they were worried about endorsing it without a fuller account of its long term implications. The Government assumed the treaty would be carried on its own merits, with a minimalist campaign in favour, based on previous Yes votes and turnouts. The full implications of these misjudgments are only now being realised by the Cabinet, political parties and voters.
There is much that is positive in this crisis. Despite the damaging disarray within its ranks on European policy, the Government has moved to create a National Forum on Europe and appears ready to accept a number of proposals to improve political accountability through the Oireachtas on EU policies and decision-making. This is a necessary and belated recognition of a gaping democratic deficit within Ireland's own political system. One should beware of sweeping statements attributing those shortcomings to Brussels bureaucrats when responsibility lies closer to home.
The Government's general strategy to provide for an extended period of reflection on the result of the referendum before deciding precisely how to respond is also sensible. It must be conducted against a No campaign emboldened by Mr Prodi's remarks that legally the treaty is not necessary for enlargement and in the full glare of a stimulating and widespread public debate on Ireland and Europe. When it comes to advocating that the question be revisited the Government must forcefully argue the political case for passing the treaty so that enlargement can go ahead on time. It must also clarify its views on the future of Europe.