MEMBERS OF the general public still do not appreciate the possible extent of the economic downturn, with its impact on employment, services and the public finances, on the basis of their responses to last month's Budget.
Almost two-thirds of those questioned in the latest IrishTimes/TNS mrbi opinion poll took the view that the Budget was too tough, with 10 per cent believing it was not tough enough and one in five feeling it was "about right". Given that the fiscal situation continues to deteriorate, the Government will have a major job to do in educating public opinion about unpalatable economic realities and the need for civic discipline.
What emerges with stark clarity from the opinion poll is a general unwillingness by the electorate to pay more in taxes in order to prevent a further reduction in public services. Voters favour spending cuts over tax increases by a large margin, as a response to the financial crisis. And they believe public servants should be asked to follow the example of the Taoiseach and his Ministers by taking a pay cut of 10 per cent.
There is nothing very surprising about this. Public servants are an obvious target. And unhappy memories from the 1980s involve high personal taxes going hand-in-hand with inadequate public services. However, a tendency to ignore the common good because of self-interest and to avoid responsibility for funding necessary services should be a matter of concern. The challenges involved cannot be shirked.
A majority of supporters in every political party, up to 70 per cent in Fine Gael and 54 per cent in Fianna Fáil, took the view that the provisions of the Budget were too tough, suggesting a failure to adequately prepare the ground by Ministers. Women, in particular, were incensed by the measures, followed by working-class voters and farmers. Green Party supporters were least critical.
Supporters of all parties, other than the Labour Party, favoured the introduction of spending cuts over tax increases to deal with the financial crisis. A similar trend emerged in relation to the funding of public services when only majorities within the Labour Party and the Green Party were prepared to pay higher taxes in order to prevent a reduction in public services.
Dublin is the only region in which a majority of voters would accept an increase in taxation in order to preserve public services. Middle-class respondents take a similar view. Overall, however, 49 per cent of voters are opposed to paying more taxes to protect services, compared to 46 per cent in favour. Resistance is greatest within Fianna Fáil.
In the coming months and years, as the effects of recession manifest themselves, these issues are likely to become highly charged. The departure of the Progressive Democrats is likely to weaken the proponents of a low-tax regime. In any event, altered economic circumstances may allow for no alternative but to raise taxes. What is important is that the various policy options and their implications should be fully debated and understood.