THERE IS little doubt in the wake of Russia’s parliamentary elections at the weekend, that, come March, prime minister Vladimir Putin will be returned once more to the presidency. By fair means or foul. Putin has always been more popular than his party, United Russia, which lost 77 seats in the Duma (though it retains a majority) despite serious claims of electoral fraud.
In the absence of a serious opposition figure to take him on, Putin should have little difficulty in being re-elected to the job he vacated four years ago. Although, whether he can achieve a simple majority in the first round may now be in doubt.
The irony is that both he and his party probably retain sufficient, albeit declining, support (49.5 per cent of the vote, compared with 64.3 per cent in 2007) to make the rigging of elections and muzzling of opponents and the press largely unnecessary to retain control of the Duma. United Russia can even still muster the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional changes if it forges alliances with other parties. But old habits die hard, and both the arrogance of power and certain impunity encourage practices that will in reality only undermine his government’s legitimacy and moral authority. Making only the smallest concession to the party’s setbacks and to the demonstrators on the streets Putin yesterday hinted at cabinet changes next year.
That there was fraud is clear. Observers from the Organisation for Co-operation and Security in Europe monitored the count at 115 polling places and reported ballot stuffing at 17, evidence corroborated by our own correspondent Seamus Martin at one polling station in Moscow. Videos posted online by volunteer election observers show blatant ballot stuffing. And while in the capital official results gave United Russia more than 46 per cent, one exit poll suggested its support was only running at 27.5 per cent. Turnout in Chechnya was reported at an extraordinary 99.51 per cent, with United Russia recording Stalin-era-like support at 99.47 per cent . . . Yet United Russia managed to scrape only 34 per cent in the Leningrad Region, Putin’s home town.
Voters, particularly those from the cities and the new middle class, have become restless, fed up with the corruption that is endemic and which the government has promised repeatedly to tackle. Five thousand people demonstrated against the election rigging in Moscow on Monday. Three hundred were arrested. Undeterred they were out again last night. Putin may well find his “democratic” endorsement a pyrrhic victory.