The precarious Middle East peace process received a small but welcome stimulus yesterday when it was agreed that negotiations would reopen after a four-month impasse during which relations between Israeli and Palestinian leaders and citizens have sharply deteriorated. The decision came after the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Netanyahu, suspended a new and highly provocative plan to build Jewish neighbourhoods in the heart of Arab East Jerusalem. Renewed pressure from the United States, Egypt and the European Union to get negotiations going again are bearing fruit, but substantial progress is not to be expected. Without such progress, and given how much ground there is to make up, optimism is misplaced as well. This is dangerous, since in this conflict there is little room for a prolonged equilibrium between war and peace. Unless progress is being made towards a settlement there is a grave likelihood that armed confrontations will break out again, whether between states or peoples.
The great uncertainty has been over what direction Mr Netanyahu intends to take his government since his general election victory over Mr Shimon Peres last year. It is widely believed that he did not expect to win and has therefore found it all the more difficult to modify the hostile attitude towards the Oslo peace process that gave it to him. He remains opposed to its underlying philosophy of exchanging Israeli-occupied land for peace with a Palestinian state. But he has been unable to articulate a convincing alternative road to a settlement and has barely begun to engage in real dialogue with Palestinian leaders. More to the point, the relentless factionalism, infighting and political ineptitude which have characterised his administration have inevitably created a short-term approach to the peace negotiations. There are many signs that domestic and international impatience with these circumstances has begun to show. On the Palestinian side, Mr Yasser Arafat's authority and legitimacy have been undermined by the long delays in the peace process. These have reinforced the authoritarian and spendthrift features of his regime. Pressure from the US, surrounding Arab states and now increasingly from the European Union on both the Israelis and the Palestinians was matched yesterday by the decision to postpone this latest settlement plan. Mr Netanyahu had earlier read correctly the international alarm over his plans to appoint Gen Ariel Sharon to a central cabinet position and changed tack. But it is much too early to say whether he has turned a policy corner that might allow the pace of negotiations to speed up and to bring a realistic settlement in sight. He has made many enemies within his ruling coalition, who could yet converge against him. As he weaves his way between the factions within his own party and the competing demands of the smaller parties within his coalition he may have little time or opportunity to develop a more coherent and realistic peace strategy. But Israeli leaders, Mr Netanyahu included, have shown themselves adept at recognising and then adapting to international pressure on them to respond constructively to the need for peace in such a volatile region. This should encourage the Europeans in particular to maintain their attempts to put the peace process back on the rails.