ANALYSIS:Party support for the First Minister has simplified matters – the big picture is now about getting agreement on policing and justice
PETER ROBINSON is now in a much better place politically than he was 48 hours ago. He is still in a dark personal place. Iris Robinson is very ill. But in the meantime Stormont is still functioning and Robinson has bought political time.
Robinson’s party came out to support him virtually en bloc yesterday. That support, which can’t be easily unsaid, has turned this drama on its head. Where prior to this backing the political situation was almost ridiculously complicated and multi-layered, now in terms of what we call big-picture politics there is relative clarity.
It’s simply back to getting a deal done on policing and justice to save the powersharing structures and to rescue Robinson’s political career – until after the Westminster elections at least.
This is the most amazing political theatre where the plot keeps changing, where we are spellbound by the principal characters, and where the personal and the political combine to create an extraordinary unfolding drama. Arlene Foster started out yesterday morning stoutly defending her leader and First Minister and arrived in the afternoon as the new First Minister although, as she stressed, in an acting capacity.
Northern Ireland politicians and the journalists reporting them and their doings are running hard just to stay still, as the public looks on agog. Over the weekend we noted the silence of the party. Where were the expressions of support Robinson needed to hold on to power? Finance Minister Sammy Wilson said on Sunday that Robinson commanded the support of the party and South Down MLA Jim Wells also had encouraging words for his leader, but that was it. But by yesterday morning there was a transformation. Wilson went on BBC Radio Ulster's Good Morning Ulsteras first bat for his leader. Then Arlene Foster went on the station's Nolan chat show where against a grilling from Stephen Nolan she robustly defended Robinson.
We knew there were people within the party who wanted Robinson destroyed because, off the record, they acknowledged that was their position. Robinson had “no hope”, said one at the weekend. Well, let these “whisperers” show themselves, said Foster. It was a sharp performance. It set the tone for the DUP parliamentary party meeting later in the morning. Those who wanted Robinson out were left in no doubt they had to put up or shut up.
The whisperers shut up. They lost their chance. Just after high noon the DUP’s parliamentary party was trooping down the steps into the grand hall of Parliament Buildings. They formed a phalanx of support as deputy leader Nigel Dodds read his statement backing Robinson. Perversely they may also have been galvanised to support Robinson by David Trimble’s weekend call for him to resign.
There too in the hall were the Rev Ian Paisley and his wife Baroness Eileen to lend authority to that statement. It was important in a broader sense that they be there. Both want the DUP to hold together but they also want powersharing politics to work. They were making a statement on two levels: DUP members hold your nerve; and don’t let this crisis wreck Stormont.
Because of all the sensationalism around the sexual and financial allegations against Iris Robinson there are still people who just won’t believe she is very unwell mentally. But from Robinson himself and from other objective sources there is no doubting that there is serious concern about her wellbeing.
Some of the coverage of her illness has bordered on the voyeuristic. Callers to some radio chat shows have shown a lack of humanity approaching cruelty. Iris Robinson because of her past pronouncements brought some of that odium on herself, but people need to be careful. One of Robinson’s aides warned against coverage that could make a bad situation worse.
Through much of recent days Peter Robinson has been accompanied by his daughter Rebecca, a political personal assistant, to lend him personal support. He remains game for the political cut and thrust but he still looks and sounds like a man who needs close family and emotional support.
There are a number of factors that explain the party’s backing of Robinson. One is simple self-preservation. The party seems likely to suffer in the Westminster elections expected in May or possibly earlier but by opening up the possibility of a deal on policing and justice there is a reasonable chance that the Northern Executive and Assembly could see out its lifetime to May next year.
That would buy time and give the DUP an opportunity to regroup. What’s important here is that, with devolution, the centre of political power will rest at Stormont rather than at Westminster. Because there are more MLAs they have more clout. The DUP’s nine MPs may just have to do the best they can come the British general election.
After that election it may well be that Robinson will be forced to resign as DUP leader and First Minister through a poor party performance – the loss of North Antrim to Jim Allister of the TUV being one of the worst-case scenarios.
In the meantime if the Assembly and Executive are to continue it seems there must be a deal on policing and justice. Robinson explained that in the coming six weeks he has a mission: to help look after his wife and family; to clear his name; and break the deadlock with Sinn Féin over policing. At least he now appears to have time for proper political focus which, obviously, was lacking.
And this, as mentioned, is where there is a degree of clarity. If he and Martin McGuinness and Sinn Féin – who seemed happy to row in with the temporary resignation mechanism – can hammer out a deal then Stormont is safe. If he can’t or won’t then Sinn Féin must decide whether they feel they have no option but to walk away. That should under current legislation precipitate Assembly elections but the question, as usual, is: elections to what? There is an argument that DUP sceptics such as his possible successor Nigel Dodds won’t allow Robinson thrash out a deal with Sinn Féin. Equally though it could be in Dodds’s interests to see policing sorted on Robinson’s watch. Then
full devolution – which the DUP wants but by their own timing – would be done and dusted and a new DUP leader could work from a clean slate. Of course, there would be a risk
for Dodds that, if the DUP does better than expected in the general election, Robinson could remain on as leader and First Minister.
There is no reason why policing and justice can’t be devolved soon. As one senior DUP source said, the “issue is organically moving towards a resolution”, meaning that most of the ancillary issues around policing and justice are sorted. It’s now a question of whether a damaged Robinson can persuade his party over the line and whether he will for once match his words with actions.