A report on the likely economic and social outlook for rural Ireland in the absence of major policy changes should come as a wake-up call for the Government.
A dramatic reduction in the number of full-time farmers by 2025; falling agricultural and industrial output and a worsening regional imbalance between east and west, is predicted in the absence of remedial action. There are echoes of the 1960s campaign to "Save the West" in this report. But the areas affected by rural decline are predicted to spread like a blight across the country. In spite of that, the report's demands are predictable.
They call for greater Government investment in transport, energy and communication systems; in education, research and development and in economic planning away from developed areas. Without such investment, the State-funded scientists and academics predict, there will be "an unacceptable regional imbalance" in Ireland's economy in 20 years time.
The conclusion begs the question: what does "unacceptable" mean. Most citizens from the border, midlands and west regions are convinced an "unacceptable" imbalance already exists. So, how bad is the situation likely to get? Much worse, according to the Rural Ireland, 2025 report. The number of full-time, commercial farmers will fall to 10,000 and be concentrated in the east and south. Lower farm output will threaten the viability of food processing plants; many multinational companies will move to low-cost economies and employment in the building industry will decline.
The report identifies the National Spatial Strategy, which has been gathering dust since the Government published it in 2002, as a necessary element in achieving balanced development. The Government's recent transport investment programme is heavily biased towards Dublin. And its decentralisation programme takes no account of the spatial strategy.
The need for a shake-up in Government thinking is manifest. Long-term planning must take place while the economy is performing well, unemployment is low and Exchequer funding is available. Research in agribusiness, creation of specialist foods and the development of renewable energy are just some of the options available. Tourism also offers opportunity.
But none of this can happen without regional investment in education, in telecommunications and in transport. There is no point in the Government parties trotting out investment wish-lists at election time if they do not deliver on them. That practice only serves to fuel public cynicism. Better to dust off the National Spatial Strategy and take some tough, long-term decisions.