AS THE European Union congratulates itself on forging a rare united front against Moscow over its intervention in Georgia, the Kremlin is celebrating the bloc's refusal to impose sanctions as yet more proof of its dependence on Russian energy.
What EU leaders portrayed as a show of strength - the postponement of talks on a new partnership deal with Moscow until its troops in Georgia return to pre-conflict positions - is seen as weakness among Russian leaders who had feared financial sanctions even while doubting they would work.
In cartoons and opinion pieces, the Russian media, most of which toe the Kremlin line, saved the majority of their scorn for Britain, Poland and the Baltic states, which were seen as the main advocates for tough economic punishment to be meted out to Moscow. Russia was always confident that the likes of Italy, Germany and EU presidency-holder France would ensure that the measures taken against it were relatively mild, no doubt recalling how Paris and Berlin lobbied against Georgia being offered Nato membership at its summit in April, for fear of angering the energy-rich Kremlin.
Russia rightly assumed that the EU would not downgrade economic ties with the country that provides about 40 per cent of its gas and one-third of its oil. And as Moscow seeks to re-assert itself as the key powerbroker across a vast swathe of highly strategic territory from the Black Sea to Central Asia, it believes the EU and United States will not risk that economic relationship any time soon.
With much of the Middle East still unstable and the West still addicted to oil and gas, and with US and European militaries committed to Afghanistan and Iraq, Russia sees an opportunity to muscle its way back on to the top table of world politics with something approaching impunity.
For countries which want to integrate more deeply with the West but are still tied to Russia, this is a troubling time. Many people in Ukraine fear Moscow will destabilise the strongly Russian Crimea region, and Moldova worries about the separatist region of Transdniestria which - like South Ossetia and Abkhazia in Georgia - is supported by Russia and is patrolled by its peacekeepers. In Azerbaijan, a key link in western plans to create a major non-Russian energy supply route, the conflict with neighbouring Armenia over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh could ignite with only the smallest spark. Such concerns motivate the current visit of US vice-president Dick Cheney to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine.
The only way the EU can really strengthen its political hand with Moscow is to wean itself off Russian oil and gas. Until then, its leverage will be severely limited. While the bloc continues to dither in the race for new pipelines and supplies, however, the Kremlin is busy tightening its grip on Central Asia's energy. Yesterday, as the EU was hailing its supposedly tough stance against Moscow, prime minister Vladimir Putin was signing a major deal with Uzbekistan to route yet more gas through Russia.