Alex Salmond has played a relatively weak hand exceptionally well since he became First Minister of Scotland as leader of the minority Scottish National Party administration 100 days ago.
He has proved to be a confident leader, maintaining the initiative with well-chosen interventions which kept his opponents on the defensive. This has gained him increased support in opinion polls since the elections in May.
Launching the White Paper Choosing Scotland's Future, A National Conversation yesterday Mr Salmond said that as SNP leader he supports independence. But he allows there may not be a majority for it, since other parties support the status quo or a deeper devolution within the United Kingdom. Instead of aiming for an immediate referendum he proposes an extended discussion on these three options to ensure that independence remains in the foreground of the political agenda in coming years. He is convinced that its merits will become more and more apparent to Scottish voters, but is willing to accept that further devolution of other functions could be accepted as stepping-stones to political independence.
The three main Scottish opposition parties - Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives - came together before the White Paper was published to say that they see it as a waste of money, since most Scottish voters continue to reject independence. But these parties are willing to engage on the alternatives offered, thereby acknowledging that the debate has now shifted from whether Scotland should have more autonomy to what further powers should be devolved. The White Paper spells out these issues clearly and dispassionately.
It is an important debate for the United Kingdom and Britain - and for Ireland. These designations are suddenly more malleable and less stable than before when Scottish independence is put on the table. Subtracting Scotland from the UK would have unpredictable repercussions for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Depending on how it worked out politically, moves towards Irish unification could happen much sooner than generally expected or preferred. Not for nothing does the White Paper open with a quotation from Parnell.
But even if, on the balance of shared interests and values underpinning contemporary unionism, independence remains as undesirable and unlikely as Mr Salmond's political opponents insist it is, deeper devolution becomes more probable. Scotland's new relations with Ireland are highlighted in the White Paper. These changes should therefore be kept high on the political and civic agenda of all the jurisdictions in these islands.