Two state elections in Germany tomorrow will have an important bearing on the future course of that country's politics. The Social Democrats currently have an overall majority in Saarland and Brandenburg, but opinion polls predict they will lose both. This could set a rolling precedent for voters in three more states and for local elections in North-Rhine Westphalia over the next four weeks.
If they go badly for the chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroder, he will lose his principal political asset, his ability to win elections, weakening his position within the party and probably losing his majority within the Bundesrat, the upper house of the federal parliament. That would affect the government's capacity to get its programme through, since Bundesrat approval is needed on matters affecting state finances, the constitution, or the administrative jurisdiction of the states. All this comes just as Mr Schroder has come under sustained criticism from a party rank and file disillusioned with welfare cuts and taxation policy.
It all adds up to a distinctly unfavourable scenario for Mr Schroder as the government and most federal departments move to splendid new headquarters in Berlin. Opinion polls show him to be more unpopular than the leaders of the Greens, the Christian Democrats, Bavaria's Christian Social Union and the former chancellor, Mr Helmut Kohl. There is a general perception of policy confusion, political drift and mismanagement which it will be difficult to dispel if these elections go badly. Within the party his left-wing antagonist, the former finance minister, Mr Oskar Lafontaine, is about to publish a book of political memoirs critical of policy reversals and the shift towards the so-called Third Way approach sponsored by the British Labour Party leader, Mr Blair.
Mr Schroder has not been through the same bruising encounters with party traditionalists as Mr Blair and is seen by many of them as an opportunist rather than a strategist. But he has shown a readiness to take them on when occasion demanded over the last year. And he has certain factors working in his favour, notably the promise of economic recovery which could deliver on his plans to eat into the still high unemployment figures.
These have been at the core of the more friendly approach to business leaders he introduced in the face of party critics. With it goes the plan to cut 30 billion deutschmarks from next year's budget so as to stabilise the country's debt service and link pensions to inflation rather than average wage increases. Economic recovery is being fuelled by export led growth on the back of a relatively weak euro and by enhanced industrial productivity. But it will further stimulate left-wing critics of his tax policies who say they favour the rich and hit the weakest sections of society including the elderly and the unemployed and that they will not benefit from tax cuts. If they prevail or force Mr Schroder to tack in their direction there will be fresh criticisms from the business leaders whose goodwill he has endeavoured to cultivate.
Economic recovery is not likely to be prevented by this political confusion. But it does not bode well for the firm leadership expected from the German government abroad as well as at home.