The Government faces a major challenge in selling the European Union Reform Treaty it recently agreed with 26 other member-states in a referendum next year, according to the results of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. This finds that 25 per cent of respondents would vote in favour and 13 per cent against it, but that 62 per cent do not know how they would vote or have no opinion on the matter. Effectively, therefore, the issue is wide open, since most people are altogether unfamiliar with the arguments or are as yet quite indifferent to them.
Since Ireland will be the only member-state to hold a referendum on the treaty it will attract a lot of international attention next year. Campaigners for and against it - some of them headbangers, according to Enda Kenny - are expected to visit Ireland, having been frustrated in their efforts to force referendums elsewhere. The treaty will fall if rejected here. Whether and how it could be resurrected if that happened would pose the same problems for the Government and the rest of the EU as when the Nice Treaty was defeated in the 2001 referendum. On that occasion it was rejected on a turnout of less than 35 per cent after an utterly complacent and lacklustre Yes campaign. It took another much more vigorous referendum the following year to see it passed when half a million more people voted, nearly all of them in favour.
In terms of democratic credibility it would be difficult indeed to repeat such a second attempt. The major effort by those in favour, including political parties and civil society organisations, must be made the first time around. They can be sure of a determined No opposition campaign against.
The Reform Treaty replaces the constitutional document agreed in 2004 but rejected by the French and Dutch referendums in 2005 with one that makes similar institutional changes without the symbolic and state like language of the earlier text. The new treaty equips the EU to deal more effectively with enlargement from 15 to 27 members, to widen its policy competences in well-defined and carefully delimited spheres, to improve its internal decision-making and to conduct a greater role in world affairs. On that basis it is worthy of support.
But that case in favour must be argued politically in coming months. Compared to the last such poll on the constitutional treaty in March 2005 there is now about half as much support for this one and many more who don't know. That faithfully reflects the falling away of public discussion in the meantime. This poll shows some significant variations in attitudes, with more urban, male and middle class support than among Munster, Ulster and women voters. Proportionately it has most support from Green voters. But the overwhelming finding is that most people are not willing to opt either way. They need to be informed about its contents and to hear the arguments for and against before they can be expected to make a real political choice next year.