Despite the drift towards compromise and moderation in the wake of the Ballymoney tragedy, it may be that Northern Ireland is again reverting to the politics of the last atrocity. The confirmation by the RUC that it suspects Provisional IRA involvement in the callous murder of Mr Andy Kearney, has come to dominate the political agenda this weekend. On foot of the murder - and the IRA's continued involvement in punishment shootings - the First Minister, Mr David Trimble, has signalled that he is not yet ready to sit in government with Sinn Fein. In characteristic style, Mr John Taylor, has gone one step further, declaring that the Kearney murder could signal the end of the Belfast Agreement. Sinn Fein claims it is embarrassed by the murder: Mr Gerry Kelly has described it as "an appalling incident which should never have happened". But the party cannot escape responsibility. Mr Kearney was apparently killed because he fell foul of a leading IRA figure in Belfast. If IRA involvement is proved conclusively, it will present something of a dilemma for the Northern Secretary, Dr Mowlam, who is due next week to publish an Order listing those organisations whose members are entitled to benefit from the two-year programme of prisoner releases. Inevitably, it will also increase Unionist pressure for the exclusion of Sinn Fein from the executive. Mr Taylor hints at a possible crisis for the agreement should the SDLP refuse to support such a move. Some of his colleagues have complained that the mechanisms for excluding from the Assembly those parties still linked to violence are inadequate. Those who campaigned against the agreement see an opportunity to regain some of the ground lost in the referendum and the Assembly elections.
There are also worrying signs that some in the UUP are still facing both ways on the implementation of the agreement. Earlier this week, Mr Seamus Mallon moved, quite rightly, to remind Mr Trimble and his colleagues that there is a burden of duty on all of those who have signed the Belfast Agreement to honour it: the legislation effecting the agreement is not negotiable. But there is a still greater burden on the Republican movement to face up to its responsibilities. The situation on the streets provides little evidence that it is doing this. Despite the ceasefire, the pernicious practice of IRA punishment attacks has continued at an extremely alarming rate. As the security correspondent of this newspaper reported this week, the Provisional IRA is thought to be responsible for no less than 31 punishment shooting so far this year. The Republican movement has also failed to deliver on other commitments. Despite some promising signals, there has been no move to decommission weapons or to help recover the bodies of those abducted and killed by the IRA. The clear, unambiguous statement from the IRA that the war is finally over is also awaited. It may be that the current talk of the agreement facing a `crisis' is overstated. The agreement has proved robust enough to survive the Drumcree period. And the forthcoming visit of President Clinton will, assuredly, give the peace process an additional fillip. But this does not obviate the need for the Republican leadership to cast off its baggage: the IRA/Sinn Fein axis cannot escape the reality that an unambiguous commitment to exclusively democratic means is an essential component of the agreement.