Skirmishes and nervousness mark the end of phoney war

It was a helter-skelter week in here, the usual end-of-session stuff, with the Seanad sitting until nearly 4 a.m

It was a helter-skelter week in here, the usual end-of-session stuff, with the Seanad sitting until nearly 4 a.m. on Thursday morning, agonising over the fine detail of the Abortion Bill as the rest of us partied away through those endurance tests which are now an obligatory part of the Christmas season. Most of us were glad to get away from it all yesterday, even if the Seanad still has a few more days to go.

Drapier listened in to the Seanad debate - a lot more passionate than it's Dβil equivalent, even if most of the running was made by the Opposition parties.

Fianna Fβil were particularly low key about it all - almost Cistercian in their taciturnity, heads down and full steam ahead and if there were doubts, they were kept firmly under wraps. Dermot Fitzpatrick injected a good note of common sense into proceedings which at times seemed headed for the stratosphere.

For Fine Gael there were fine performances from Mary Jackman, Helen Keogh and Madeleine Taylor-Quinn (where were all the men?) and the Bill was given the sort of scrutiny it deserved. The absence of any guillotine procedures ensured a full and detailed debate. Mary Henry and David Norris were as dogged as they were detailed and Drapier was disappointed that some, at least, of their amendments did not get M∅cheβl Martin's approval because as far as he could see they would have improved the Bill.

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Labour had a bit of an embarrassment at second stage and were not let forget it by some Fianna Fβil members, still smouldering after Ruair∅ Quinn's "bastards" comments, but Joe Costello and his group more than made up for their second stage lapse at the Committee and Report stages.

But what are we to make of the PDs? If Fianna Fβil had no doubts then the PDs had nothing but doubts. John Dardis at second stage told the House the referendum was not a good idea - and then voted for it. After that it was silence. The party was chaste in its abstinence from the Committee Stage debate and is clearly deeply embarrassed by the whole thing. Drapier suspects they have become the vulnerable ones as far as this issue is concerned and expects to see the pressure build- up as the referendum date approaches.

But when will that be? The approval of the Catholic hierarchy makes the holding of the referendum more rather than less likely. Indeed certain. But in Drapier's view it is still far from a foregone conclusion. Their Lordships do carry weight but not as much as previously and while it may be ironic to see Fianna Fβil as the new Bishops' Party, wrapping the ecclesiastical purple securely around itself (what would Dan Breen make of it all?), the combination of Fianna Fβil and Maynooth should be hard to beat. All that's missing from the equation now is the GAA.

Strangely, though, Drapier is not so sure. The public has a mind of its own as Nice showed and on this issue Drapier feels that, for a variety of reasons, many of them contradictory, this referendum could already be in some trouble.

As Drapier sees it there are two core problems. The first is that the public has been living with this issue for two decades and most people see no fundamental solution - either way. They have learned to live with an imperfect situation and see no compelling reason to change, or see no better way.

The second problem is who will lead the campaign. Drapier does not see Bertie Ahern getting into crusading mode and doubts if any of his A team have either the time or inclination to get their hands dirty and take a leading role in the battle. For the PDs the whole thing promises to be a nightmare. Will Liz O'Donnell campaign against? Will Mary Harney get stuck into the Yes campaign? One thing is certain - their political opponents will not allow them float loftily above the fray or do anything to make life easier.

Nice showed that unless there is a strong political leadership no constitutional amendment can hope to succeed.

Drapier doubts if such leadership will be forthcoming on this issue. He suspects that once the Government makes possible the holding of a referendum it will then feel its work is done and hand the field over to the pro and anti forces. If that happens anything is possible.

In spite of late night sittings and flurries of votes there is actually very little talk in here about the referendum - and in that Drapier suspects Leinster House is an accurate reflection of what is happening in the country. There was far more talk about the TG4 poll and a fair bit of trepidation about what it all augured.

For Michael Noonan the poll bore out what he has long been saying - that the next election will be won and lost in the 41 individual constituencies and, with good candidates, a result very different to what the national polls are predicting is entirely possible.

Most people in here have long predicted that Marian Harkin will get a seat in Sligo-Leitrim and John Perry has established himself as a dynamic and able politician who has already copper-fastened the seat he won in 1997. So there were no surprises at the high vote each of these garnered in the poll.

The big question mark was, and is, over the last two seats. Sinn FΘin have long targeted Sligo-Leitrim but on these figures they won't be at the races. The protest vote which helps Sinn FΘin elsewhere belongs here to Marian Harkin. But for Fianna Fβil to be down to one seat is little short of catastrophic. If Fianna Fβil loses this seat and loses also in Tipp North, Kerry North, and Dublin South West, as TG4 is predicting, then Bertie Ahern will lead back the smallest Fianna Fβil party since 1927.

Drapier warns that polls are only polls and the only one that counts is on election day but in the case of TG4 we are looking at a pattern which is running through all of their polls and which tell the same story - bad news for Fianna Fβil.

Nor is there much cheer for the Government from the Budget. It is almost as if it never happened. The only clear winner was Derek McDowell and even his good performance has been eclipsed by the "bastards controversy". Drapier is surprised at how sensitive and raw the reaction from Fianna Fβil was. As far as Drapier could see Ruair∅ was using the term in much the same way as Donogh O'Malley defended Frank O'Connor's use of the word "hoor" from the attacks of Oliver J Flanagan all those years ago - disrespectful but mildly affectionate.

But try telling that to Fianna Fβil.

Be that as it may there is now a real hostility between Fianna Fβil and Labour.

The mock battles and the phoney war are over and that, more than abortion or TG4, is the real story of the week just past.

Garret FitzGerald is on leave