The forthcoming general election is shaping up to be a fascinating and tight contest, particularly between political heavyweights Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, writes Noel Whelan
In a scenario where the parties on polling day realise the share of the vote indicated in last Friday's TNS mrbi poll, Fianna Fáil would be down 7.5 per cent on its 2002 first preference vote while Fine Gael would be up 8.5 per cent.
If reflected across constituencies, Fianna Fáil would be down about half a quota in each five-seater, about two-fifths of a quota in four-seaters and just over a quarter of a quota in three-seaters.
There will be 18 three-seaters in this election, including the new Meath East, Meath West and Roscommon-South Leitrim constituencies and Dublin North Central - now reduced from four to three seats.
Fianna Fáil currently holds two of the three seats in 11 of those constituencies and its second seat in each is now vulnerable.
The extent to which the party squeezed maximum seats from falling first preferences is illustrated by the fact that it won two seats on less than two quotas in most of those three-seaters (see table ).
There are specific factors in many of those constituencies that also affect Fianna Fáil's prospects. Joe Walsh is retiring in Cork South West and there are no Ministers on the tickets in Tipperary North and Dublin North East.
Sinn Féinwill poll stronger in places such as Donegal South West and Dublin North West.
In Donegal North East Fianna Fáil has three seats including Niall Blaney, but on these national trends it would struggle to hold even two.
It is difficult to be precise about the 2002 vote-share in what is now Meath West because electronic voting deprived us of tallies, but the percentage drop suggested by this poll would put Fianna Fáil's second seat at risk. Neither is the party's single seat in the highly competitive Kerry North guaranteed.
Fianna Fáil's second seats in four-seaters where it holds two are now also at risk. Dublin South West, Dublin Central and Wicklow were always vulnerable and Maireád McGuinness's declaration for Fine Gael added Louth to that list. However, this poll puts previously safe constituencies like Waterford and Cork East in this category.
Fianna Fáil should hold two seats in Cork North Central which is now a four-seater.
A Fine Gael gain at the expense of an Independent in Galway East may save Fianna Fáil's second seat there, and the party is likely to win back the seat lost in the 2005 Kildare North by-election. However, the fact that national swings are more pronounced in Dublin jeopardises the party's single seat in Dublin South East.
Fianna Fáil is also exposed in the five seaters where it holds three seats. First to fall would be Carlow/Kilkenny, where Carlow loyalties to MJ Nolan in 2002 gave the party three seats on 2.5 quotas. In Cork South Central the party held its third seat by just six votes but the redrawing of Batt O'Keeffe's Ballincollig base into Cork North West and the poll trend suggest a seat-loss to Fine Gael. Any national swing against Fianna Fáil is likely to be less pronounced in Laois/Offaly so it should hold three seats with a PD loss to Fine Gael more likely.
At 34 per cent, Fianna Fáil even faces the prospect of seat losses in some five-seaters where it has two seats.
This scenario will be particularly worrying for Michael Mulcahy in Dublin South Central and Barry Andrews in Dún Laoghaire. Fianna Fáil has just one of Mayo's five seats since Beverly Flynn is now an Independent, and on this poll could not take two.
However, the party's second seats in Wexford, Limerick East or Dublin South where they had spare capacity in 2002 are still safe. Overall, a swing of the magnitude suggested by the TNS mrbi poll could see Fianna Fáil drop between 16 and 20 seats.
Fine Gael would be the main beneficiary from Fianna Fáil's losses. Breaking the 30 per cent barrier nationwide would see them take seats directly from Fianna Fáil in Cork South West, Tipperary North, Cork South Central, Dublin North, Louth, Donegal North East, Dublin North East, Limerick West and Kildare South.
Fine Gael gains in Dublin South East, Cork East and Dublin West could be at the expense of Fianna Fáil but could as easily be at the expense of Labour.
On this vote-share Fine Gael would also gain at the expense of Independents in Galway East, Kerry South and Cavan/Monaghan and could take four seats from the Progressive Democrats, namely, in Laois/Offaly, Dún Laoghaire, Limerick East and Dublin South.
In addition this vote-share would see Fine Gael benefit most from the constituency alterations, with potential second seats in Roscommon-South Leitrim and Sligo-North Leitrim and maybe even a new seat in Dublin Mid West.
The party could win a seat in Dublin West while previously vulnerable seats in Donegal South West and Galway West look safer.
The bounce will not necessarily fall Fine Gael's way everywhere but overall a 31 per cent vote share could give Enda Kenny a phenomenal 20-plus seat-gain.
Labour's 10 per cent poll showing gives them about the same number of seats. However, with Fine Gael rising, Labour could lose seats to its favoured coalition colleagues and hoped for gains in places like Wicklow and Dublin Mid West are less likely.
The significant rise in Sinn Féin's vote-share forecast by this poll, together with the drop in Fianna Fáil's vote, points to additional Sinn Féin seats in the two Donegal constituencies, Dublin North West, Dublin Central, possibly Dublin North East, and maybe Waterford and Meath West.
Following some strong polling, the Green Party is curiously down in this poll, however it is still up on 2002.
Assuming their growth is more concentrated in urban areas, they should gain some four seats, although Fine Gael's improvement could deprive them of some of their targets.
All in all, this poll as applied to the constituencies points to a real contest, particularly between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael.