The evident relief of the stock market is probably the best guide through the spin and counter-spin surrounding the significance of yesterday's ruling by the European Commission that Ryanair must repay up to €4 million in aid received from the Wallonia regional government to establish its base at Charleroi near Brussels.
Ryanair's chief executive, Michael O'Leary, may have branded the outcome a disaster but his view was not shared by investors who pushed the value of the company's share price up by 5 per cent. The €4 million repayment figure amounts to little more than petty cash in Ryanair's terms. As the company was keen to point out, the weekly interest on its €1.2 billion cash reserves will more than adequately cover it.
Equally apparent is the view of the market that the consequences for Ryanair's low-cost model, while negative, are limited. The company is still free to negotiate whatever deals it can with privately owned airports, while state owned airports can continue to offer limited subsidies for new routes. Adapting the airline's business model to the new constraints laid down by the Commission will undoubtedly increase Ryanair's cost base but it will still hold a significant competitive advantage over its rivals. And the impact on air fares will not be dramatic. Even by Mr O'Leary's own admission, the worst-case scenario is that prices will go up by an average of €16, which is more than double the Commission's own estimate of between €6 and €8 on a return ticket.
There are already signs that price is not the only factor that drives budget-airline traffic. Despite having promotions which offered to pay people to fly, Ryanair has not been able to fill its planes and, as a consequence, it admitted to the market last week that annual profits would fall for the first time since it came to the stock markets in 1997.
Where Mr O'Leary is correct to be concerned is that the decision might signal a subtle but significant change in Commission policy towards Ryanair. Undoubtedly, it would be unwise to read too much into the ruling. But clearly some elements in Brussels now feel that Ryanair has got a little too big for its boots, and that its domination of the budget-airline sector is not necessarily a good thing. Yesterday's ruling effectively means that any agreement negotiated with an airport by Ryanair must now be offered to its competitors. The ability to negotiate better deals than its rivals has been an important factor in Ryanair's success.
The suspicion must be that the erosion of its market power - and not the impact on airports and consumers that featured so heavily in his petulant rhetoric - is what really upset Ryanair's chief executive. The company has been forced to concede some significant ground to its competitors by the European Commission. But Mr O'Leary's determination to limit the extent to which the company's wings are clipped means his battle with Brussels is not over yet.