Almost exactly a year ago, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, promised to "try harder and listen better", when the Fianna Fail candidate was soundly defeated in a Tipperary South by-election. But Mr Ahern's response to that defeat clearly failed to impress the electorate because history repeated itself in South Tipperary at the weekend. By rejecting Mr Michael Maguire of Fianna Fail with such vehemence, the public indicated it was in no mood to be taken for granted and that nothing had really changed where its concerns in relation to healthcare, unemployment and general neglect of the constituency are concerned.
By-elections are invariably occasions of protest. No government has won such a contest since 1982. Because of that, it would be a mistake to view Fianna Fail's repeated poor showing in Tipperary South as an indication of a more widespread sentiment that could sweep the party from office in the coming general election. In spite of that, party officers are taking nothing for granted and are worried by the surge in support for alternative voices. Last year, a 15 point drop in support from its general election vote was attributed to the controversy surrounding the nomination of Hugh O'Flaherty to the European Investment Bank and to allegations of political sleaze. This time, the electorate delivered only slightly less unpalatable medicine. The result will tend to delay, rather than advance, plans for a general election.
The Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan, will be greatly heartened by the outcome. A steady rise in support for Senator Tom Hayes during his two by-election contests saw him elected comfortably. The improvement in Fine Gael's fortunes was reassuring, if not spectacular. The Dail vacancy had been caused by the death of Mrs Theresa Ahearn and there would have been a natural tendency for the electorate to return a Fine Gael candidate.
That said, the victory will steady nerves within Fine Gael as the summer holidays approach and it will provide Mr Noonan with a solid platform from which to challenge the Coalition Government during its last year in office. Had Fine Gael failed to win the contest, it would have undermined Mr Noonan's leadership, seriously damaged morale in the party and given a near-unstoppable momentum to the Government.