Looking to the next election, the PDs will stress their distinctiveness at their party conference this weekend, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
Two years to go to the expected date of the next general election, time for the Progressive Democrats to start throwing shapes. Small parties run the risk of losing their identity in government as the larger party uses its strength to claim the kudos for everything that goes right. Not so the Progressive Democrats, who have twice bucked this trend.
Coming out of government with Fianna Fáil in 1992, they increased their seats from six to 10, while Fianna Fáil lost nine. And coming out of their first term with Bertie Ahern in 2002, they spectacularly doubled seats from four to eight.
They have done this through finding issues at election time that defined them as standing apart from Fianna Fáil. In 1992, Albert Reynolds's attack on some of Des O'Malley's evidence to the beef tribunal as "reckless, irresponsible and dishonest" put a chasm between the parties. In 2002, Michael McDowell's over-the-top warnings against a one-party Fianna Fáil government committed - among other things - to a "Ceausescu-era Olympic project" (the national stadium) marked them out.
To maintain longevity in government, the trick is to limit these outbursts, except at election time, so as not to sour the partnership. However, with this term now more than half way over, the Progressive Democrats are expected to use their party conference in Cork this weekend to define what they, as opposed to the Government, believe in.
New-look socialist Bertie, the trade unionist's friend, will provide them with just the opportunity. The PDs' agenda of promoting competition, privatisation and reform is facing difficulties, as the Taoiseach seems rather too keen on mollifying the unions for Ms Harney's liking. The Taoiseach's personal ratings, and those of his party and Government, have been rising steadily since he instigated a makeover of the Government's image last summer. He will be content to allow this process to continue, avoiding taking unnecessary actions that could be depicted as "right wing" or alienating influential trade unions.
The Taoiseach is reported to be committed to selling a majority stake in Aer Lingus, the PDs' favoured approach. But he is believed to be resisting the demands from Ryanair and others for an independently owned and operated second terminal at Dublin airport to compete with the existing terminal - dubbed "the Black Hole of Calcutta" by Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary.
The PDs have insisted that a second terminal be independent, but with Séamus Brennan replaced as Minister for Transport by Martin Cullen, the debate within Cabinet on this issue has swung away from the PDs. The unions have objected to the independent terminal, and, so far, Fianna Fáil seems willing to accommodate them.
But at last year's PD conference, Ms Harney highlighted competition in bus services and aviation as key objectives. So far the results have been mixed. Aer Rianta has been broken up, but the independent second terminal seems as far away as ever and there is no sign of the liberalisation of bus routes. We can expect sharp declarations from Ms Harney and others that the competition agenda must be delivered upon.
But as well as highlighting what has not been done, there will be plenty of drawing attention to what the party has actually achieved. In the hour ahead of Ms Harney's televised address tomorrow night, the party will hold a session celebrating two decades of achievement.
Not surprisingly, the narrative presented is expected to suggest that the State's achievements are the PDs' achievements.
In the conference programme published yesterday, Liz O'Donnell compares the headline on a survey on Ireland in 1988 by the Economist magazine - "The Poorest of the Rich" - with the headline concerning Ireland on the magazine's cover nine years later: "Europe's Shining Light". The conference session on this topic will ask what caused this turnaround. Don't be surprised if the answer is "PD policies". The conference is also likely to salute Mary Harney's commitment to bringing about reform as Minister for Health, while worrying that such reforms cannot be delivered quickly enough to provide an electoral benefit.
The party is strengthening its headquarters staffing and has seen its membership rise from around 4,500 to over 6,000 since the 2002 election. About half the new members came from the Laois/Offaly constituency, an extraordinary recruitment spurred by energetic new TD and Minister of State Tom Parlon. The party membership will control 20 per cent of the votes for the election of the next party leader, so now there are regular checks to ensure that in the enthusiasm to sign up new members, all are genuine, paid up and active.
The Tánaiste will rush back from Pope John Paul II's funeral in Rome this afternoon to make tonight's opening of the conference. An ecumenical prayer service for the late pope has been added to tonight's proceedings as a mark of respect.
The party's disappointment in failing to increase its number of councillors in last year's local elections is acknowledged by general secretary John Higgins in his report to the conference. They have no obvious candidate who appears to be on the verge of winning a Dáil seat, and with just eight deputies the PDs are permanently at risk of electoral calamity if they don't perform. They will use the media spotlight provided by their party conference this weekend to remind the public what they stand for.