Stephen Collins: Are FF-Labour moves part of a long-term strategy?

The minority Government's defeat on a Dáil motion during the week is no cause for immediate panic but it should be a wake-up call for Fine Gael. If the party does not take heed then its chances of surviving in office for any length of time could quickly evaporate.

Losing an occasional vote on an Opposition motion is only to be expected given that the Government is so far short of a majority, but a steady succession of defeats would shake the fragile confidence in the durability of the 32nd Dáil.

What was striking about the Dáil vote in Private Members’ time on Wednesday night was not so much that the Government lost but the way it appeared to stumble into the defeat with its eyes closed.

Until very late in the day Fine Gael TDs seemed confident that Fianna Fáil would abstain on a Labour motion defending workers' rights and promoting the introduction of a "living wage".

The surprise on the Government benches was palpable when Fianna Fáil TDs trooped in behind Labour to defeat a Government amendment rather than merely abstain.

Afterwards Fine Gael TDs speculated about what Fianna Fáil and Labour were playing at. They might have been better employed asking how they had allowed themselves to be put in the position of facing an unnecessary defeat.

“What has surprised us is the way the Government has sat back and expected things to go on just as they would if they had a secure majority,” said one senior Fianna Fáil figure. “They need to find issues on which they can win otherwise they could be in trouble.”

Commitments

There is a wide range of commitments in the deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and in the programme for government that could command a majority in the Dáil if they are properly presented.

What appears to be lacking is a formal mechanism by which day-to-day business can be negotiated between the main parties to establish which Government measures can command a majority in the House and which will not.

Enda Kenny needs to take a leaf out of Bertie Ahern’s political playbook. Back in 1997 when the minority Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrat administration took office the other parties and many commentators did not believe it would last for very long.

In the event it went the full five-year term because Ahern and his chief whip, Seamus Brennan, put formal mechanisms in place that allowed for day-to-day consultation with the four Independents who kept the government in place.

A senior civil servant in the Taoiseach’s department, Declan Ingoldsby, was appointed to look after relations with the four, and they remained on side through some very tricky political controversies.

In the far more complex conditions of the current Dáil an effective form of consultation needs to be put in place as soon as possible if the Government is going to survive for three budgets as specified in the deal with Fianna Fáil.

Another signal that Fine Gael needs to get its act together was the manner in which Fianna Fáil and Labour came together during the week.

On Wednesday Fianna Fáil backed the Labour motion on workers’ rights and on Thursday Labour returned the compliment by voting for Pat “the Cope” Gallagher, the Fianna Fáil nominee for leas ceann comhairle.

Fianna Fáil TDs explained its support for the Labour motion on the basis that it reflected its own emphasis during the general election on fairness, but it was hard to avoid the conclusion that it might be the first sign of a longer-term strategic alliance.

Micheál Martin can entertain realistic hopes of making Fianna Fáil the biggest party after the next election, but to get into government, even in a minority situation, he will need to put some sort of coalition in place.

Recovery

If the Labour Party can make any kind of recovery then the prospect of a coalition with Fianna Fáil, even if it has to be underpinned by some sort of arrangement with Fine Gael on the opposition benches, could be a runner.

Labour leader Brendan Howlin has already tried to put as much distance as he can between his party and Fine Gael to Kenny’s obvious irritation in Dáil exchanges.

Roísín Shortall did have a point when she interrupted Howlin to demand how he could expect to be taken seriously in his criticism of Fine Gael when he had served in government with that party for the past five years.

Still, the public memory is short, as the Fianna Fáil recovery from the 2011 disaster shows, and Labour has every chance of recovering significant ground next time out. What the party needs to avoid, though, is repeating the mistakes of the past.

That involves a recognition that those mistakes arose as much from its period in opposition between 2007 and 2011 as they did from the subsequent stint in office.

What Labour has done throughout its history is to fulminate in opposition and then proceed to implement in government many of the things it previously denounced. A more considered approach in opposition, giving far fewer hostages to fortune, would make the switch to governing more credible.

One thing in Labour’s favour is that it has the moderate social democratic space to itself in this Dáil. The Social Democrats might have been some competition but so far they have preferred to throw in their lot with Sinn Féin and the Trotskyist hard-left on a variety of issues.

The manner in which it set the agenda this week showed that Labour is capable of becoming a viable force again in the future.