ACCORDING TO an internationally endorsed political agreement reached in 2005 to end its long civil war, southern Sudan is to vote in a referendum next January 9th on whether it wants to become independent. Tension is building, since northern leaders now realise the vote is likely to be in favour. This could lead to the break-up of Africa’s largest state and many complications about border definitions, control of oil resources and neighbouring interference. Preparations for the referendum are behind and there are rumours (denied in Khartoum) that Sudanese troops are being mobilised to prevent it.
Sudan has straddled some of Africa’s deepest cultural, religious and ethnic divisions since it became independent of British rule in 1956, between the Muslim Arab and Christian black parts of the continent. The civil war pitched the two parts of the country against one another, complicated by arguments over land, water and other resources – especially oil – which were systematically monopolised by the north. Two million people were killed and four million became refugees.
International attention is also more active ahead of the poll, driven by strategic issues, human rights concerns and economic interests. The country’s eight neighbours are obviously concerned about renewed instability. So are the United States, which became deeply involved in the Darfur conflict in western Sudan, and responds culturally and politically to the south’s Christian identity; and China, to which 60 per cent of Sudan’s rich oil resources are exported. Since 80 per cent of Sudan’s oil is concentrated in the south the Chinese are having to adjust to the possibility of secession, which the US tends increasingly to assume will happen.
Northern leaders grimly recall that independence is only one possible outcome of the referendum, alongside deep defederalisation and continuing national unity. They and many Arab states suspect hidden geopolitical agendas are at work encouraging secession.
This week talks are due on pre- and post-referendum issues such as border delineation and management, citizenship and voting rights, and oil revenue sharing and grazing rights for pastoral peoples. These are now decidedly political rather than technical questions. They should be treated urgently as such by Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir and Salva Kiir leader of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in the south if these tensions are not to spill over into renewed conflict.