The Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, are due to meet in Downing Street this evening to discuss what will probably be a damage-limitation agenda for the Northern Ireland peace process. There is, properly, no air of imminent crisis. The Taoiseach has spoken of finding ways of carrying the situation through the coming period of electoral uncertainty. But it must be ominous if once again the objects of the Belfast Agreement are to be retarded.
It is not impossible, even yet, that a deal could be put together which would link the issues of policing, decommissioning and demilitarisation. Such a deal, if it could be struck, would then lead to the full restoration of the North-South links, effectively put on ice by the First Minister, Mr David Trimble.
In the absence of such a deal in the very near future, the Agreement may go into review and the institutions may be suspended in whole or in part. It could be summer before further progress is possible.
There appears to be no serious threat to the IRA ceasefire. Loyalists continue their low-level, sectarian attacks. But apart from the possibility of some act of terrorism from republican dissidents there is no likelihood of large-scale violence in the immediate future. Yet the warning by the Deputy First Minister, Seamus Mallon, that the Agreement could "bleed away" is not without foundation. By the time political normality is restored in the aftermath of a UK election, the marching season will be coming up. The mould of the new police service in the North will have been cast. The object of a fully-functioning, democratically-based administration, representative of the entire community will be a long way off realisation. And if the policing reforms founder that object will never be fully realised.
Sinn Fein may have made the political calculation that its best interests are served by withholding support from the Police Service of Northern Ireland - regardless of what the British may propose. The SDLP makes noises which suggest that it would wish to endorse the new police structures but it appears to lack the conviction to make the final leap. The Government in Dublin stops short of supporting London but lets it be known that it would like the North's nationalist parties to jump together. Alone, the Women's Coalition has come out in support of the arrangements which are now proposed for policing. Not for the first time has its voice been raised in an honest and reasonable appraisal of surrounding realities.
The question now arises, will others with influence - if not with direct political power - follow the lead given by the Women's Coalition and one or two moderate voices among the nationalist community? Or will the fear of stepping out of line, of being seen to move an inch out of the tribal comfort zone, predominate? Will the Catholic Church call on its young men and women to present themselves for recruitment to the new police service? Will the GAA do likewise with its members?
Almost certainly they will not. It may well be that their doubts are grounded yet in detailed reservations about the new structures and arrangements. These may not be perfect. But they would strike most outside observers as meeting high standards of fairness, accountability and commitment to the best ideals of civilianised policing. By these criteria, they are well ahead of anything else to be found in the European Union and light years in advance of what prevails in this State. It is difficult to avoid the feeling that a great opportunity is about to be lost.