South Africa marked the seventh anniversary of its new dispensation this weekend with less confidence and optimism than is usual on these occasions. The unity of the ruling alliance is threatened, its leadership's commitment to the rule of law is open to question and President Thabo Mbeki appears to be losing support within his own political alliance.
The African National Congress (ANC), of which Mr Mbeki is the leader, has for decades been allied to the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU). It also has its own divisions between the internals, who fought to overthrow apartheid from within South Africa, and the exiles who did so from outside.
Within the formal structures of the alliance there are communists, liberals, trade unionists, nationalists, exiles and internals. In addition, Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi, leader of the mainly Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party, is part of the government as Minister of Home Affairs.
Despite these strong internal tensions, South Africa's rulers have managed to maintain a remarkable degree of unity. Mr Steve Tshwete, the minister for Safety and Security, however, has placed that unity under severe threat in a bizarre television appearance.
Mr Tshwete accused three prominent politicians of plotting to overthrow the president. He announced a police inquiry into the activities of Mr Cyril Ramaphosa, Mr Tokyo Sexwale and Mr Matthews Phosa, leading ANC members who moved from politics to business.
At a stroke, Mr Tshwete, apparently with Mr Mbeki's agreement, has severely damaged South Africa's international image as a model of stability in sub-Saharan Africa. There have been no land seizures from white farmers whose tenure is more questionable and whose behaviour more objectionable than their counterparts in Zimbabwe. Companies have been privatised rather than nationalised.
Mr Mbeki must stand for re-election as head of the ANC in December and Mr Ramaphosa is his only credible opponent. There are signs that the "plot" disclosed by Mr Tshwete may have been uncovered with this election in mind. If so, it backfired badly. Mr Ramaphosa, an arms inspector in the Northern Ireland peace process, has, along with Mr Sexwale and Mr Phosa, found support from extremely influential sectors of political opinion. These include the former president, Mr Nelson Mandela, the leadership of COSATU and a number of government ministers. Even Ms Winnie Mandela, whose support for Mr Mbeki against Mr Ramaphosa in the past was crucial in ensuring that he became president, has backed the "conspirators".
Such is the dissatisfaction with Mr Mbeki within sectors of the ANC that it is difficult to avoid the conclusion that the South African Police Service is being used to help him in his re-election campaign. Such a move would do serious damage, not only to Mr Mbeki's reputation, but to that of his country.