Russia is once again faced with a campaign of terrorism against civilians linked to a separatist war in the Caucasus region. In the space of two weeks more than 250 people have lost their lives in explosions and some 200 soldiers have died in what is fast becoming a reprise of the Chechen war of 1995 and 1996. The announcement by Mr Aslan Maskhadov, the president of Chechnya, that he has called for a mobilisation of all adult males has increased tension further.
When the incursions into Dagestan began on August 7th, most Chechens strongly disapproved of the actions of Shamil Basayev and his accomplices. The bombing of villages may have changed that and a renewal of war between Russia and Chechnya is a thought too appalling to contemplate. The most serious lesson for Russia from that conflict was the stark fact that its armed forces were defeated. There is no reason, given the fervour of Russia's opponents, their knowledge of the remote terrain and Mr Maskhadov's proven skill as a military commander, why the result would not be the same a second time around.
Russia justifies defending its territory in Dagestan against incursions by Chechen rebels under the warlord Shamil Basayev on the basis that the rebels have no proven mandate in Chechnya or Dagestan; nor do they have the discernible support of the population in either territory. They are associated with banditry, kidnapping and an extreme form of Islam. Many, though not all, of the rebels belong to the puritanical Wahhabi sect which is prevalent in Saudi Arabia. They have defaced and closed down the shrines of the indigenous Sufi Muslims. Reports that they are also associated with the Islamist leader Osama Bin Laden, based in Afghanistan, have led the United States to pledge support for Russian leaders in the struggle against them.
The bombs which killed over 70 people in Moscow yesterday and 62 people in an apartment bloc in the town of Buinaksk on September 4th were almost certainly the work of their supporters. Since the Buinaksk bombing Russian planes have been attacking targets inside the Chechen border. Retaliation of this sort is a tactical and political blunder, which is likely to make the situation worse.
Speculation abounds that President Yeltsin is about to take early retirement so that presidential elections can be held in tandem with the parliamentary vote on December 19th - or that a state of emergency will be invoked to delay them both. The situation has become almost as volatile as it was in 1993 when Mr Yeltsin had to resort to a section of the army to shell an unco-operative parliament.
Alongside this the Russian political and financial establishment is fending off serious claims of corruption and money laundering on an unprecedented scale, with revelations unfolding daily in the United States, Italy and Switzerland. It is against this background that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, arrives in Moscow today with the most important Irish trade delegation to visit the Russian Federation. Political and economic upheaval caused Mr Ahern's visit to be postponed on a number of occasions and his decision to go ahead with the visit is welcome. His presence will be seen as a measure of support from a small neutral country for Russia and its people when it is badly needed.