The referendum campaigns on the three amendments to the Constitution have got under way this week, in preparation for voting on June 7th. That the principal one, allowing the Government to ratify the Treaty of Nice, has a democratic mountain to climb in terms of knowledge of the issues involved is made abundantly clear by the results of the Irish Times/ MRBI poll published today. Most people have only a faint understanding of them. While the Government may be heartened by the results showing the Nice referendum is likely to be passed, there are real concerns about the legitimacy of such a result if the campaign fails to close the comprehension gap identified by this poll.
It would be a mistake to conclude that the referendum should not be held at all. A vigorous campaign will certainly bring home the salience of what is involved in the Nice Treaty to a much wider audience than would otherwise have been the case - just when a wider debate about the future of Europe is under way. And it also exposes the weaknesses of existing democratic controls by the Oireachtas over how governments conduct European Union business. Fears that the Nice Treaty will reinforce this loss of control are expressed in an article in today's newspaper by a former Attorney General, Mr John Rogers, who says he will vote No because of this. Whatever the validity of his argument, it is just such interventions that will alert voters to the important issues at stake and, it is to be hoped, bring the campaign alive.
The poll shows Irish voters are broadly in favour of enlarging the EU, by a margin of 59 to 25 per cent, with 16 per cent expressing no opinion. This is in keeping with previous findings. But arguments will intensify as to whether the central purpose of the treaty is to facilitate enlargement, as its supporters say, or to achieve other objectives such as reinforcing the powers of larger member-states, as its opponents claim. Political leaders of the 12 candidate states support the treaty as an essential tool and commitment to letting them join the EU and are alert to the possibility that the referendum could be rejected by the Irish electorate.
Irish attitudes to European integration have changed in tandem with the rapid economic development of recent years. A greater self-confidence and changing interests have been articulated. Some of this can be seen in the more evenly balanced attitudes towards uniting with or protecting independence from the EU revealed in this poll, representing a swing of some ten percentage points since 1996. Politicians have had to take more account of such attitudes, which make for a more critical, but not necessarily a more rejectionist, approach among the voters. It will be up to the treaty's supporters to demonstrate that it can serve such changing interests in new circumstances.
The poll also reveals that most voters see no incompatibility between supporting Irish participation in the EU's new military Rapid Reaction Force and continuing this State's policy of military neutrality. Participation is on a case by case basis, with no commitment to an alliance. But the treaty's opponents will seek to drive home their argument, during the next three weeks, that this is not as solid a guarantee as is widely believed. Fianna Fail may find that its refusal to hold a referendum on joining the NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace becomes once more a contentious issue, despite the fact that the Nice Treaty adds little substantively to what has already been agreed in the Treaty of Amsterdam on this matter. It is just such issues that can take off in such a campaign, which should reinforce the Government's determination to lead a vigorous and coherent debate in favour of the treaty, leaving little room for complacency about the outcome. The two other referendums, enabling Ireland to endorse the International Criminal Court, and to remove any provision for the death penalty from the Constitution, are less contentious than the Nice Treaty and look likely to be carried on the evidence of this poll. They too deserve serious attention and debate over the next three weeks.