Ireland's representatives enter the final round of the Agenda 2000 negotiations at the Berlin European Council in a good position to secure a favourable deal for this State over the next EU budgetary period. Having done so well the last time around, this has not been an easy negotiation - especially given the high rate of economic growth, for which Ireland has become so well-known.
But it was always realised that its final stage in Berlin would be critical, with so many diverse interests at stake. No conclusions can be drawn until the last details are agreed. Transfers to Ireland from the EU budget come under two main headings, agriculture and the structural, regional and cohesion funds. Ireland has gained a huge amount from the Common Agricultural Policy over the 26 years of membership, and has a vital interest in seeing it continue on a centrally-funded basis. The agreement reached earlier this month preserved that interest to a surprising degree. Pressure to re-nationalise some of the funding was fought off and is most unlikely to resurface. There may be an attempt to claw back some of the overspend involved in reaching the farm agreement, which could endanger other parts of the budgetary package, but the core structure remains intact and must be recognised as a solid achievement. Beef and dairy interests of Irish farmers were protected, although they will be vulnerable to more changes under the next world-trade round.
This relative success has left the Government free to concentrate on the other side of the EU transfer account. Most attention has been devoted to regionalising the State in two parts, in order to optimise the Objective 1 structural funds and the high level of industrial grants in such areas. The Government's decision to add Kerry and Clare to the 13 counties falling within regional groupings already established, drew much comment and criticism. In the event, Eurostat's refusal to accept such a division, has been taken stoically and has left the basic regional change intact and looking secure as a means of optimising structural funds. But the very lateness of this concession leaves Ireland vulnerable to pressure on other counts, since it is seen as a particular benefit to this State.
At Berlin there will be much pressure by net contributing states to scale down budgetary commitments to cohesion funds and to transitional arrangements for those states such as Ireland seeking a soft landing from severe cuts in EU transfers. This may present the Taoiseach and his team with their most formidable difficulties over the next two days. There is, unfortunately, little leeway in these talks, given the overall balance of forces.
It cannot be assumed that the over-riding German desire to secure an agreement will be sufficient to broker compromises that would suit Ireland's interests. But undoubtedly the ground has been well prepared for this final phase of negotiations.
Whatever happens, Ireland will end up receiving probably less than half the transfers from Brussels achieved in the 1992-99 budgetary period. Despite the tendency to become overly reliant on them and to spend less than was required from our own budgetary resources, it cannot be denied that the funds were skilfully drawn down and spent to sustain Ireland's development. The end of an era is in sight now that Ireland's transition to net contributor status can be discerned in the period after 2006.