The Government today faces into a sticky autumn, reports Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
Tax revenues are drying up; the health services face another winter of crisis; road-building plans are short of money; the Luas is threatening to take forever to build.
The list goes on. The anti-smoking ban lobby remains to be faced down; politics in the North is withering. The Government and Fianna Fáil in particular are showing poorly in the opinion polls, and backbenchers confirm that discontent with the Coalition is growing in their constituencies.
Most worryingly of all, the Taoiseach's famed ability to avoid blame when things go wrong appears to have deserted him. The media and public reaction to "that wedding" is seen as a symptom of this rather than a cause.
The Taoiseach had already lost ground in the opinion polls over a belief that his Government had been re-elected on the basis of false promises. He was being condemned as "out of touch" long before the avalanche of criticism landed on him during and after his daughter's wedding in Gallardon last month.
"When the press and the punters turn on you, they do it 100 per cent," remarked one Opposition figure yesterday.
Just last year senior Government figures said they were resigned to two years of opprobrium as they managed a slowing economy. However, they believed they could re-establish themselves as a good-time Government well before the next general election.
But after the summer they now fear that the damage may be permanent, and that the local and European elections in just nine months time will demonstrate this.
Amid all this gloom, the Cabinet today holds its first meeting in five weeks. The economic situation is not on the formal agenda at all. Instead, according to a Government spokeswoman, Ireland's EU presidency in the first half of next year will dominate the agenda. Ministers will travel to Emo Court, Co Laois - in the constituency of the Minister for Foreign Affairs - to hear Mr Cowen outline the issues facing the Irish presidency.
Of course it is too early to know exactly what issues will face the Irish presidency. In many policy areas the issues to be dealt with next year will not be clear until close to the end of this one.
However, whatever happens, each Irish Minister will have to chair talks and speak on behalf of the EU for six months in his or her policy area. Doing this well will not turn around the Government's fortunes. But doing it badly would be a domestic disaster - displaying any signs of national incompetence in front of foreigners would cause immense damage in next year's elections.
Ministers are about to begin a round of talks with their opposite numbers from the other 14 EU member-states and the 10 states that will join next May. Today's meeting is designed to focus Ministers on the presidency, and get them to set goals and ensure that logistical arrangements are in place.
But the big issue on all Ministers' minds is money. If the economic situation is not discussed at the formal Cabinet meeting, it will feature strongly when Ministers adjourn to a local hotel for lunch. Over the next eight weeks, officials from the Department of Finance will meet representatives of each Minister to discuss their spending plans for 2004.
With tax revenues falling €500 million short - so far - the Government must either increase borrowing (a move it condemned strongly during last year's election campaign), increase taxes (which is akin to sacrilege in the eyes of the economically dominant element of the Cabinet), or restrain spending yet further (which is what started the Government's present difficulties in the first place).
Meanwhile, figures loyal to the Taoiseach have been muttering for some time about the performance of the Cabinet. It is the under-performance of some Ministers rather than any action of Mr Ahern that have led to the fall-off in support, they say. They ask why all Ministers cannot emulate the dynamism of, say, Séamus Brennan and Martin Cullen. If all Ministers were to be as active as those two, the Government would not be polling poorly, they say.
This has led to some speculation that Mr Ahern could even reshuffle his Cabinet before the end of this year. This seems highly unlikely, not least because of the forthcoming EU presidency.
Ministers are already preparing to run the EU agenda for the first six months of next year. Appointing new Ministers, or shifting some to new portfolios, so close to the start of the presidency would seem to be risky.
It is seen as much more likely that Mr Ahern will stick with his present team until the middle of 2004, by which time the local and European elections will be over, as will the presidency.
Many backbenchers believe the Government is seriously in need of a new image, and many of course believe this could be achieved by appointing them to Government office. Nobody is convinced that the notoriously cautious Mr Ahern will make radical changes.
He has some room for manoeuvre. The EU commissionership is up for appointment next year. Were he to appoint a current Minister to the post, he would create one vacancy, but Commissioner David Byrne is likely to agree to do a second term if asked.
Were Mr Ahern to seek to give his Cabinet a younger image, he could look to the two oldest members - the Minister for Defence, Mr Smith (62), and the Minister for Agriculture, Mr Walsh (60) - as candidates for retirement to the backbenches. Were he to look to replace lower-profile Ministers, he could consider the Minister for Social Welfare, Ms Coughlan, and the Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs, Mr Ó Cuív - although it can be argued in defence of both that it is their portfolios rather than themselves personally that bring about their low profiles.
Among Fianna Fáil Ministers of State there is a queue seeking promotion. Mr Willie O'Dea made no secret of his disappointment last year.
Ms Mary Hanafin, Mr Brian Lenihan and Mr Dick Roche are also among those who have performed well in high-profile posts over the past year.
As for Mr Ahern himself, nobody is talking about moving to replace him. He is a mid-term Taoiseach suffering a mid-term slump in popularity. His party is generally willing to believe he can lead them to recovery, but he is no longer untouchable.