THE PUBLIC has four weeks in which to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of the seven contenders going forward as presidential candidates and to choose the one they feel is best suited to represent the values and aspirations of Ireland at home and abroad. It will not be an easy task. All candidates appeal to different sections of the electorate and, on the basis of opinion polls, the outcome is likely to be decided by the transfer of votes.
While the Office of President is non-political, the nomination and election processes create a political bear-pit where reputations are frequently shredded. The intensity of those assaults is likely to increase in the coming weeks. A trickle-down effect from the general election, which transformed the face of Irish politics, is still being felt. For the first time, no Fianna Fail candidate has been nominated. And while voters flocked to Fine Gael last February, they appear reluctant to transfer that support to Gay Mitchell. Instead, the electorate has tended to look outside of the established parties for high-profile individuals. The result of this pressure has brought about a relaxation of the nomination system by the main parties and the ratification of four Independents.
The campaigns of would-be candidates have dominated. Hard-won successes by Mary Davis and Seán Gallagher in securing county council nominations were overshadowed by the last-minute achievements of David Norris and Dana Rosemary Scallon in following their lead. The greatest impact was, however, made by Martin McGuinness when he was nominated by Sinn Féin and stepped aside as deputy first minister in the Northern Ireland Executive. During this period of uncertainty, Michael D Higgins of the Labour Party continued to attract solid support and emphasised his future independence, if elected.
A great deal can happen in four weeks. Going into the last presidential contest in 1997, Adi Roche led the field. On polling day she trailed in fourth place behind Mary McAleese, Mary Banotti and Dana Rosemary Scallon. Popularity can be an ephemeral thing. In that regard, a refusal by David Norris, on legal advice, to release details of controversial letters he wrote is likely to remain a focus of media attention and cause ongoing damage to his campaign.
The absence of a Fianna Fail candidate is unlikely to stop that party from dabbling in the election. Micheal Martin is fully alive to the threat posed by Sinn Féin and the attractions Mr McGuinness may hold for old-style republicans. Rather than facilitate the rise of Sinn Féin at Fianna Fail’s expense, informal support may be offered to Independent candidates. Ms Scallon, who polled extremely well in 1997, and Seán Gallagher would be obvious choices but Mary Davis, who is emerging as a formidable candidate, has a greater capacity to attract preference votes. Mr Mitchell looks to the Fine Gael organisation and canvassing by party members to increase his support. He may be right. With four weeks to go, it will be a hard-fought campaign all around.