If sheer resolution were the only determinant, former Taoiseach Albert Reynolds would be as good as installed in Aras an Uachtarain by now. By announcing his candidacy this week to succeed Mary Robinson he has sought to cut across John Hume's possible ambitions. At the very least he has presented Fianna Fail with a dilemma. Otherwise, he has given them a candidate who cannot be discounted.
Mr Reynolds knows that he faces an uphill struggle to secure the nomination of the party which he once led. The Minister for Defence, Mr Andrews, has all but declared publicly that Fianna Fail dearly wishes Mr Hume to be President, thus sparing the party the difficulty of having to choose a candidate of its own and the possible grief of then having him or her rejected by the voters. And Fianna Fail members at all levels have serious doubts about Mr Reynolds's electoral saleability. Much would depend on who would be running for Fine Gael and Labour.
Fianna Fail's reservations about Mr Reynolds are not confined to his ability to get votes. At high levels within the party there is concern that if elected his presidency might not easily be confined to a ceremonial role, removed from current politics. Mr Reynolds sees himself as a pivotal figure in the peace process. Mr Ahern's Government is going to have its work cut out in negotiations with the British and with the Northern political parties for the foreseeable future without having to worry about presidential interventions. And the doubters will not have been reassured by Mr Reynolds's remarks in West Belfast at the weekend; remarks which drew a sharp rebuke from the nationalist Irish News, for his "apparent haste to cosy up to Sinn Fein".
Mr Reynolds will have to spend a while on tenterhooks - along with his party and, indeed, with the other main parties in Leinster House - until Mr Hume makes up his mind what he wants to do. That Mr Hume is tempted by the idea of the presidency is clear. But he has to weigh heavily against it the prospect of disengaging from the crucial negotiations which are due to begin at Stormont on September 15th. There is a school of thought that the time is now right for Mr Hume to stand aside, having created the preconditions for a settlement. But it could equally - perhaps more strongly - be argued that this is precisely the point at which constitutional nationalism needs its strongest and most experienced player on the field.
With the resumption of talks on September 15th the peace process enters a critical phase. Nothing less than the constitutional arrangements for the future governance of Northern Ireland will be at stake. Indeed, aspects of the constitution of this State and its relationship with the United Kingdom will be part of the negotiating calculus. It may not be inappropriate to compare these discussions with those of 1921-22, albeit within different parameters.
Mr Hume would be an ideal President of Ireland. Political parties and people alike would welcome him as a worthy successor to Mrs Robinson. His dilemma must be, if he departs the process and if it fails, or if it results in a deal which leaves the problem festering and unsettled that he will be blamed for abandoning his people at their hour of great decision. Many will be disappointed if he rejects the presidential option and chooses to remain with active politics. But such a decision would be understood and respected. And it would certainly shorten the odds in favour of Mr Reynolds for the Park.