A five week window of opportunity is available in which the IRA can display courage and vision by declaring an unequivocal ceasefire which would transform political and communal relationships within Northern Ireland. In the past, unilateral actions of this kind have been rare within the republican movement. But the political sterility and the failures which have attended the physical force movement in the past should not prevent republicans from engaging in innovative thinking and risk taking. Trawling over, past grievances and blaming the British for everything, is not a policy; it is the collapse of vision.
With United Kingdom elections due to be held on May 1st, republicans are facing both an opportunity and a challenge. A change in the composition of the British government is almost certain, with Mr Tony Blair and the British Labour Party expected to sweep into power. But the broad parameters of British policy on Northern Ireland and the talks process are unlikely to change; just as a pre summer general election in this State would have little impact on official policy, even if Mr Bertie Ahern were to replace Mr John Bruton as Taoiseach.
In such circumstances, it is obvious that an IRA ceasefire will be required if Sinn Fein is to enter the Northern Ireland talks, which are scheduled to resumed on June 3rd. Demands for a precise date for the party's entry into talks, in advance of an IRA ceasefire; and for assurances that the unionist parties will not be allowed to inhibit progress, are politically unrealistic at this stage because of the general election campaign. The degree of tension and in fighting between the unionist parties was reflected at the weekend when Mr David Trimble dismissed the Rev Ian Paisley as a "loudmouth... who engages in exaggerated slogans and pantomimes."
Sinn Fein's demands are regarded in some nationalist quarters as self serving, designed to allow republicans to continue to talk peace while engaging in war. Last June, in the course of the Northern Ireland elections, Sinn Fein indicated that support for the party would lead rapidly to an IRA ceasefire and entry into talks. It didn't happen. Instead, bolstered by nationalist support, the IRA resumed and extended ifs bombing campaign. The electorate must not be fooled twice about republicans' intentions.
At this stage, an unequivocal IRA ceasefire is a vital ingredient in any scenario which promises early political pro a reduction in inter communal tension. President Clinton and Senator Edward Kennedy have spelled out in unambiguous terms the desire of Irish Americans for a peaceful resolution to this historic problem. They have promised that, should an IRA ceasefire be called, US diplomatic pressure will be used to ensure Sinn Fein's participation in the talks.
Northern Ireland Minister, Mr Michael Ancram, yesterday repeated that Sinn Fein could enter talks following a credible IRA ceasefire. And similar assurances - have been provided by Mr John Bruton, Mr Dick Spring and Mr Bertie Ahern. Given such assurances and the likely election of a British Labour party government, a pre election IRA ceasefire would transform the political situation. It would go some way towards defusing inter communal tensions in advance of the traditional marching season and create a post election climate in which politicians could negotiate an agreed settlement.
Moderation is not an attribute which attracts a high premium in Northern Ireland. And yet, the Alliance Party and Lord Alderdice continue to plough that difficult, inter communal political furrow with great courage and persistence, as was evident from the party's weekend conference. Ultimately, moderation and political agreement are the only way to maximise economic and social progress and to avoid future violence.