The Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, has been briefing political leaders on the legislation which must shortly go through Westminster in order to have power pass to the new institutions provided for under the Belfast Agreement. March 10th now seems the likely date for the transfer of authority - something less than two months ahead. Earlier this week she was in upbeat mood, declaring that the "finishing line is in sight" and that "all we have to do is to make sure we put in the effort and the momentum to get there".
If cheerfulness and determination of the kind displayed by Dr Mowlam could alone secure the start-up of the new institutions, it would be relatively easy to share in her optimism. But the gap between unionists and Sinn Fein on the decommissioning of weapons remains unbridged. There has been no sign of movement since before Christmas, when agreement was reached on the North-South implementation bodies and the structure of departments within the proposed executive. At that time, it will be recalled, the Taoiseach said that Sinn Fein, with two ministers, now had something concrete with which to go to the IRA to seek a start on decommissioning.
The tactic seemed promising. Sinn Fein and the IRA could, in effect, see, if not touch, their secured prize of guaranteed participation in government. Thus assured that the unionists could not exclude them, it was reasoned, some gesture or indication would be given on decommissioning. But far from that, the IRA's response was another hard-line message for the New Year. The give - in agreeing the structure of the executive - has once again been on the part of the two governments and Mr David Trimble's unionists.
It might have been thought, against this background, that the focus of political pressure would have been upon Sinn Fein and the IRA in the weeks since Christmas. Not so. The chairwoman of the Alliance Party, Ms Eileen Bell, has urged Mr Trimble to get on with the setting up of the executive, arguing that inclusion of Sinn Fein ministers would highlight their obligation to promote decommissioning. Similarly, the Labour Party leader, Mr Quinn, has urged the First Minister to press ahead with or without any indication on decommissioning from Sinn Fein's paramilitary associates in the IRA. This would require courage on Mr Trimble's part, Mr Quinn said, but without it the process is in danger of running aground. Mr Seamus Mallon has repeated his view that Sinn Fein cannot be excluded from taking its two ministerial positions on the executive.
It is true that the letter of the Belfast Agreement supports the Sinn Fein claim rather than the unionist position. But those who urge Mr Trimble to cede more ground are ignoring the extreme vulnerability of his political position. Moreover, they are urging him to yield on what must be the last ditch defence of democracy - that an elected government cannot function while one faction maintains a private army and refuses even to give a categorical assurance that it has turned its back on violence.
Despite the best efforts of the two governments and repeated endeavours by Mr Trimble to meet the problem with flexibility and imagination, the response from the Provisionals has been zero. There has been no decommissioning, no promise of decommissioning, no undertaking that violence has ended for good. Bringing such people's associates into government under these circumstances may well have the effect of extending the ceasefire which has been enjoyed - more or less - since the last declared cessation by the IRA. There seems to be a growing acceptance among political leaders that this is the only way to a permanent peace. But if so, it is to be bought at the expense of precious principles.