The Fine Gael parliamentary party gathers in Galway this afternoon to prepare for a new Dáil term. A year ago, at a similar meeting, the party held high hopes of being in government now. Last May, however, the hopes of the rainbow coalition were dashed, more by Labour's failure to win some extra Dáil seats than by Fine Gael's own strong performance in the general election.
Fine Gael now finds itself facing five more years in opposition. That prospect may dismay the party. It should not, however, be too discouraged.
Enda Kenny led Fine Gael to the brink of power last May after it won back most of the seats lost in 2002. That was a huge achievement. With 20 more TDs than before, Mr Kenny is better placed now to become a more effective leader of the Opposition. His job as party leader, however, remains half done. For parliamentary opposition, critical though it is in a democracy, is a means to an end to a role in government. It is not an end in itself. And so for Fine Gael, from the vantage point of 2007, a place in government next time is a more realistic future prospect than ever it seemed in 2002 after the party had suffered the greatest electoral setback in its history.
Fine Gael today has a better balance of experience and youth in its greatly increased Dáil representation. The return to Leinster House of those, such as Alan Shatter and Charlie Flanagan, with considerable Dáil experience, is complemented by the arrival of some young newly elected TDs, who have graduated rapidly from local to national politics. In the local elections in 2004, Fine Gael came within a few seats of Fianna Fáil and nearly became the largest party at local level. Its greatly expanded electoral base served for some as a stepping stone to a seat in the Dáil. In the local elections in 2009, Fine Gael should aspire to replace Fianna Fáil as the largest party in the local elections.
The next five years should prove more rewarding for a vigilant and challenging Opposition because they seem certain to prove more testing for the Government. Certainly, Fine Gael is better placed to capitalise on the difficulties the Fianna Fáil-led Coalition may encounter.
Next year, the economy is set to slow sharply, with some economists predicting a growth rate of less than three per cent. A slowing economy would reflect a decline in housing sector activity, as fewer houses are built and sold, depressing tax revenues and putting the public finances under greater strain.
The Coalition's future economic difficulties should provide Fine Gael with its best opportunity to make progress. The party and its leader should trust their instincts, rely more on their political judgment and think more in the longer term. With a new intake of talent and experience, the main Opposition party should rely less for inspiration on the day-to-day whims of a fickle public. Fine Gael seemed to be ruled by focus group findings in the recent campaign. It should rely less for direction on the results of the latest opinion poll.