The full seriousness of the Iraqi arms inspection crisis was brought home at the United Nations and on world markets yesterday as the impact of the reports by Dr Hans Blix and Dr Mahomed El-Baradei to the Security Council in New York were absorbed.
Iraq is found to have co-operated relatively well with the recent inspections, but there are several very specific and grave issues on which they are found wanting.There was a consensus yesterday that some more time is required to investigate them, as these reports are part of a much broader international set of events to be played out in coming days. The market reaction indicated clearly there is growing uncertainty about the likelihood of a war and its possible consequences.
Dr Blix's report, dealing with chemical and biological weapons of mass destruction, is the more critical of the two. That from Dr El-Baradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, finds little or no evidence that Iraq has the capacity to produce such weapons but calls for more time to validate that. Dr Blix says there is evidence Iraq has "weaponised" VX nerve agent; that there are 6,500 chemical bombs unaccounted for; that previously admitted stocks of anthrax are similarly missing; and that 300 rocket motors have been illegally imported. It is indeed a serious list of potential violations, given Iraq's commitment to comply with the Security Council's unanimous demand that it disarm.
There is still an opportunity for Iraq to comply. It is likely more time will be allowed for that when the Security Council considers these reports in more detail later this week. This is directly implied by Dr Blix's proposal to report again in two weeks' time. Clearly, such a short delay would be acceptable to those who support a war to force Iraqi compliance. Their case has been made stronger by these reports.
Their objective will best be deflected by clear and unambiguous Iraqi decisions to demonstrate compliance in coming days. Those who oppose a war must also raise their voices in favour of Iraqi compliance as well as against the use of force to resolve the crisis. Public opinion in the United States, Europe and the Arab world is solidly against a war and in favour of a political resolution. Governments must take full account of that - but there will undoubtedly be surprising or dramatic announcements and initiatives as the issue is debated before final decisions are made.
Yesterday's market movements gave a real indication of how seriously the prospect of a war is being taken and how important it will be to resolve the question of Iraqi arms compliance. These were significant falls in value across a broad range of sectors. They indicate that economic worries about growth and employment are becoming closely bound up with political uncertainty about a potential war against Iraq. Anyone who doubted the seriousness of what is at stake must now pay full attention to these events.