From St Patrick's Day to May Day is a long time in British politics. Mr Major's decision to call the election on that date is predicated on having the longest possible time available to expose Labour's shortcomings. Given its preponderant lead in the polls it certainly looks like Labour's election to lose. But even an excellent Conservative campaign will have great difficulty dispelling the feeling that for at least the last year Mr Major has been waiting in vain for Labour to trip itself up. It seems unlikely to oblige in coming weeks, even if the going is much more intense.
There is a discernible mood for change in the style and substance of British government. Mr Blair's ruthless pursuit of reform in his party has given him unprecedented control over the New Labour agenda; it is interesting to observe that it has been used as often as not to accept major changes made during the 18 years of Conservative rule as to reject them. This makes it more difficult for Mr Major to press home the charge that Labour will reverse all the Tory" achievements. The fall back to charges of Labour's managerial incompetence and inexperience of government in recent negative advertising campaigns has decidedly not worked, if the opinion polls are to be believed. It therefore looks as if the election will have to be fought out on substantive terms. This should make it more compelling - and deservedly so, for this is strategically the most important British election for a long time, possibly since 1945.
Mr Major is expected to concentrate on a number of well worn themes: Labour's lack of credibility on tax increases because of ill thought out policies on health and education; the dangers its constitutional reform proposals pose to the future integrity of the United Kingdom; the suggestion that Mr Blair would be a pushover in European Union negotiations. Despite Labour's considerable efforts to close off these lines of attack the party would be foolish to underestimate Mr Major's ability to turn them to advantage during the campaign, including now in television debate with his opponents. He is at his electoral best in adversity, as he showed yesterday in dealing with hecklers at Luton, and has an ability to appeal directly over the heads of the political and media elites concentrated in Westminster.
Mr Major is left, nonetheless, with several huge hurdles to overcome the sheer fatigue with Conservative rule; the mood of moral disenchantment with its failings and sleaze; the impatience with how it has become prey to Europhobia and unionist ambush, because of its dwindling parliamentary majority. These hang over his efforts to concentrate on Conservative successes in economic policy and the hope that favourable taxation changes will eventually feed into the electorate's mood by May 1st. There is also a feeling running through the electorate that Labour and the Liberal Democrats have the better answers to the strategic constitutional and European questions facing. Britain. The serious negotiations these parties have conducted on them have conspicuously not included the constitutional future of Northern Ireland, although it could not be immune from such an agenda. This election will clear the air for renewed efforts in the Northern negotiations.