The British Conservative Party has chosen policy cohesion over electability by selecting Mr Iain Duncan Smith as its leader in preference to the liberal and Europhile Mr Kenneth Clarke. The 61 to 39 per cent margin was decisive, on a turnout of some 79 per cent of the party's 318,000 members. Mr Duncan Smith's right-wing agenda puts his hostility to further European integration at centre stage, clearly a key factor in swinging members' votes to him.
The trouble is that their views and his remain quite at variance with most British voters on the main questions of the day. Although the European single currency remains unpopular, it is not as central an issue as the Conservatives' Europhobe wing assumes. Voters have a greater commitment to public services and are more willing to pay taxes to fund them than is Mr Duncan Smith. The new leader therefore faces an unenviable challenge of re-connecting with voters while maintaining his appeal to his party's rank and file.
This was a bruising and bitter campaign lasting most of the summer, in which the Conservatives' deep divisions over Europe dominated the debate. Mr Clarke and Tory grandees such as the former Foreign Secretary, Mr Douglas Hurd, have warned that they may not be able to avoid a split on Europe if Mr Duncan Smith pushes the party towards supporting a complete withdrawal from the EU. That could raise the prospect of a party realignment, if the Europhile wing were to split and join forces with the Liberal Democrats. Such a development would on principle suit the Labour Party by isolating the hard right wing section of the electorate as Mr Tony Blair agonises over whether to call a referendum on the euro over the next year. But if Mr Duncan Smith strives to accommodate Mr Clarke's supporters and avoids a split he would deprive Mr Blair of the chance to do so with less fear of losing a referendum than had Mr Clarke won the contest - and the drastic loss of political momentum such a result would represent.