When political leaders of the European Union return from holidays next month they must confront the dilemma of what to do about the constitutional treaty that has so far been accepted by 13 member-states but rejected in the French and Dutch referendums.
An informal summit meeting in October will be the first occasion to take stock of debate and reaction over the summer months. The period of reflection called for in June will last about a year; but well before then it should become clear what the alternative scenarios and options facing the 25 member states and their 450 million people are. A number of them have been set out in the series of articles published in this newspaper over the last two weeks under the title Whither Europe.
There is no doubt that this is a political crisis of the first magnitude for the European Union - and hence for the geographical and cultural Europe of which it now forms the preponderant part. The urge to consolidate, simplify and constitutionalise the various treaties governing the EU arose mainly from its dramatic enlargement after the end of the cold war.
This remains a rational and necessary exercise, however flawed and compromised the outcome. Over the past 20 years there has been a steady growth of political Europe alongside the original functional economic integration - although this too had its own political inspiration as a successful means of avoiding another European war.
This political growth requires deeper citizen engagement and commitment if it is to be legitimate. That in turn encourages argument and contestation, which is one of the principal ways in which durable political entities are created. One of the main problems faced during the drafting stages of the constitution was that it did not have such a popular input - and nor was this the case in most of the parliamentary ratifications that have approved the treaty.
France and the Netherlands certainly provided it - as evidenced by the intensity of debate, relatively high turnout and the prominence given to national issues such as governmental unpopularity and poor economic and social performance. Such debates tend to Europeanise domestic issues and political leaderships will have to live with this new reality.
A lot that could make the EU more accessible, open and effective would be lost were the constitution to fall. Some of these gains could be retrieved without it through inter-governmental agreements. But it is still premature to pronounce the constitution dead, since 13 states have already ratified and 10 have still to decide, Ireland included.
The Government is to publish a White Paper on the subject soon and is still preparing for a referendum. Political realities make it difficult to proceed if the momentum is lost elsewhere in the EU. There will be as little stomach for such a risky contest before an election here as in other member states. All of which suggests that several more years may be needed to retrieve and reform this project and find a way to have it accepted and ratified.