President Nicolas Sarkozy of France is facing a critical test this month as a strike movement protesting against his industrial and economic reforms gathers pace. He insists he has a political mandate for change. Rail, public transport and energy trade unions are leading strikes against plans to bring their favourable early retirement schemes to an end ahead of a wider pension reform next year. They are being joined in a more general social movement by variously dissatisfied students, teachers and civil servants. If Mr Sarkozy cannot find a way to claim victory in this conflict his credibility as a reformer planning a rupture with the past will be seriously damaged.
There are several signs that he can succeed. He has widespread public support according to several opinion polls; most voters believe he must be given the chance to show his reforms can work by stimulating growth and employment. Conscious of that, leaders of France's left-wing parties and trade unions are worried about alienating public opinion by a prolonged disruptive campaign led by far left militants. Union leaders have already suggested the pensions issue should be negotiated sector by sector rather than in one national deal. They want the government to offer greater incentives for change. Many students similarly resent the disruption of classes as counter-productive to efforts to amend legislation giving greater autonomy and private involvement to the universities.
Mr Sarkozy has most to fear from the prospect that these separate social movements might reinforce one another in an escalating conflict with his government, as they did during a similar confrontation in 1995. But the balance of forces is different now. He has more legitimacy at this early stage of his five year term of office and has carefully manoeuvred a broad range of allies into place supporting his political right to face down an industrial rebellion. He has also a pragmatic side capable of finding compromises to attract union leaders and isolate local activists.
The Sarkozy programme has a popular resonance because he promises to tackle the structural obstacles to higher economic growth, investment and job creation. He wants to encourage the French to work more so they can earn more. Most voters are disappointed with the progress made so far, despite tax cuts during the summer, but they know it is too soon to make a real judgment. Stuttering levels of growth and increasing public deficits do not bode well for his programme, and does the current turmoil on world equity and energy markets. He promises to address several of these problems at European level during his EU presidency next year.
President Sarkozy has the political skill to negotiate his way through this confrontation and thereby survive the threat it poses to his mandate for change. In the longer term he should be judged by his success in delivering on the promise of greater economic dynamism and more jobs.