Two years ago the 7/7 bombings in London presaged a long war against terrorism and there was both a terrible inevitability to the abortive attacks on London and Glasgow over the last few days and a terrible inevitability to the likelihood that next time there will be serious casualties.
The timing of the outrageous attacks, a baptism of fire for the country's new prime minister as he took office, have the hallmarks of al-Qaeda to which Gordon Brown yesterday linked them; although the bungled attempts may also suggest both that the terrorists were home-grown and, perhaps, unwilling to sacrifice their own lives. The speed with which police have made arrests in Manchester and Liverpool provides some comfort.
Terrorism, it seems, is the price we have to pay for an open society, the price that comes with rightly putting first the freedoms to move, to associate, to speak as the defining priorities of our society. It's not just that such values are anathema to Islamist terrorists, but that there is a perception they do make their apprehension that much more difficult. There is already talk in Britain of new legislation to extend detention without charge limits beyond the current 28 days and to change evidence rules on telephone intercepts, but the danger is that succumbing to such temptations may undermine precisely that which democrats are trying to defend. That is particularly so in the Muslim communities where there is evidence of widespread alienation among young people who feel they do not have a place in British society and where heavy-handed policing has proved counterproductive.
Mr Brown in his first major interview as prime minister yesterday correctly went out of his way to stress that such attacks were no more a reflection of the Muslim community's values than of those of the majority. But he would not be drawn into accepting a link between the attacks and Iraq, insisting that the challenge of Islamist terrorism was a "long-term and sustained" one involving a broader conflict of values and he spoke of a long term battle "for hearts and minds". The truth is that both statements are true. Iraq may not be the immediate causus belli, but it is undoubtedly a recruiting sergeant, as Mr Brown knows well. He has signalled that understanding already in subtle attempts to distance himself from the Blair legacy on Iraq, not least in his choice of new Foreign Secretary, David Milliband, a private critic of the operation. The weekend's events will be the first test of the real commitment to the new inclusive politics Mr Brown has promised, but in a way he could not have dreamt.