A snapshot of Ireland's economic and social standing within the European Union, as published by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on Thursday, is likely to provide much of the raw material for the coming general election campaign.
Although that contest may be at least a year away, preliminary planning by the Government and opposition parties is expected to draw heavily on those aspects of the report that favour their causes.
There is much that is good - but a significant amount that is bad - in the comparisons that have been made between Ireland and the 24 other EU member-states. The Government parties will take comfort from the fact that, in spite of lurid headlines, we have the lowest level of homicides per capita within the EU. We also rate as the most successful State by far in attracting foreign investment, managing to secure a flow amounting to 17 per cent of GDP in 2003, in spite of the global economic downturn. And while inflation was permitted to run ahead of the European norm between 2000 and 2004, we still outperformed other countries in terms of employment creation and economic growth.
It is on the social side of things that the Government parties will come under pressure. For, in spite of robust economic growth and wealth creation, Ireland devoted the lowest rate of spending to social protection within 15 EU States in 2001 and there has been no significant change since that time. The study found that one-in-five of the population was at risk of poverty in 2003, a rate matched only by Slovakia, and that pensions and social transfers had little impact in reducing this poverty rate.
The report on education was mixed, rating Ireland third in producing young adults with third level qualifications, but finding that class sizes at primary and secondary levels were above the EU average.
Government spending on health was, as expected, below par. The disposal of municipal waste through landfill was nearly 50 per cent worse than our European counterparts. And our record in controlling greenhouse gas emissions was poor.
As a report card on the Government's performance, the CSO document rates a "must do better" comment. But, in the context of social partnership arrangements, the Government and opposition parties are unlikely to propose a rise in income taxes that would address the obvious shortcomings. The message from recent elections has been that the electorate does not favour such an approach. Because of that, minimal tax changes, along with administrative and structural reforms, are likely to become the main political offerings.