The European Union summit meeting near Thessaloniki beginning this evening has a large agenda reflecting international and European events in recent months.
EU leaders will decide how to respond to the draft constitution prepared by the Convention on the Future of Europe. They will discuss a report on a new EU security doctrine after the war in Iraq and the tension it caused in transatlantic relations. Relations with neighbouring states in Europe and North Africa will be considered, as will a plan to toughen up rules on asylum and immigration.
Following the successful conclusion of the Convention's deliberations last week this summit must decide whether the draft constitution is merely the starting point for negotiations between EU governments on a treaty or a substantive basis for them. This will be the first opportunity political leaders have had to look at the text in detail. While there is likely to be agreement that it should not be unravelled, there is tension between minimalists who see the need for a lot more negotiation over a longer time and maximalists who want to wrap up the treaty quickly.
Ireland's position is somewhere in the middle. The Government is determined to resist more pressure for majority voting on taxation, has reservations about the Convention's text on justice and home affairs and wants to see more detail on defence and security. On the outcome of this summit will depend the likely timing of these negotiations, which could conclude during Ireland's EU presidency from January to June next year.
There is expected to be opposition to a British proposal for an Australian-type regime to handle asylum requests, by building transit camps outside EU borders. This is a draconian approach, which cuts across existing rights agreements and sends an unwelcoming message to prospective immigrants just when European demographic statistics reveal a rapidly ageing continent in need of new workers. Tighter controls are necessary, but they need not be as harsh as this.
A more developed and united EU foreign and security policy is also necessary in response to a changing and uncertain world. This summit will initiate work on developing it which will continue over the next year. Ireland's presidency will welcome probably 10 new member-states into the EU next year. This will not be the end of enlargement; this summit will state clearly that five Balkan states can aspire to join in future. That prospect has helped enormously to heal the wounds of the 1990s wars there, which a weaker Europe was not able to prevent.