Those who don't vote may find other ways to be heard

THE Labour Party succeeded in meeting all three of the targets set by Ruairi Quinn in the Dublin South Central by-election.

THE Labour Party succeeded in meeting all three of the targets set by Ruairi Quinn in the Dublin South Central by-election.

Mary Upton held the seat, with a greatly increased majority. The local organisation was strengthened by the efforts of Eric Byrne, formerly of Democratic Left. And the ground was prepared for a second Labour seat in the next general election.

But, for Labour, as for the other parties, bigger and more ominous challenges remain. The total poll of 20,333 from an electorate of 72,155 was little more than 28 per cent, the lowest for a by-election since 1945.

Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party have proposed that an Oireachtas committee should be set up to ask why.

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Explanations already offered range from cynicism, induced by political scandals, to practical problems associated with voting and the complexity of the system itself.

James Downey, in the Irish Independent, invoked J.K. Galbraith and the politics of contentment. Eunan O'Halpin, a political scientist who lives in the constituency, turned out to be a case in point.

He regularly advises others to use their votes, but confessed, on Morning Ireland, that on polling day he'd taken up an offer to play football instead. (David Hanly's response was an appreciative chortle.)

Clearly, many at one end of the social scale - and the constituency - find politics as irrelevant to their lives as those at the other.

For in Dublin South Central, as in the State at large, we have both the politics of contentment and the politics of poverty.

At one extreme are those who feel there is nothing that politics can do for them that the market hasn't done or promises to do. They feel they can ignore a system which they associate only with taxes and restraints.

At the other extreme, as reports from the by-election plainly showed, there are many who never came within an ass's roar of the market and who feel that politics has let them down.

And it may be that, if and when an Oireachtas committee gets around to examining the reasons for low electoral participation, our society will be much farther down the road, not to collapse but to disintegration.

If that happens, all of the reasons suggested for this week's low turnout - scandals, cynicism, indifference and failure to deliver - will have contributed to the confusion and conflict that follow.

At the core of the problem will be the refusal of politicians and public to recognise that the essence of society is interdependence and the key to its survival is political.

The Government's response to the challenge will be set out in the Budget, which in turn must fit into the framework of the national plan and set the tone for negotiations with the social partners.

Some indication of the line it intends to take will be provided by a document about to be issued by the National Economic and Social Council. It will set out both challenge and opportunity - and the choices that have to be made.

But because there are opportunities as never before and the choices are wider and more challenging, there's also a gathering cloud of nervousness in the air.

What if Charlie McCreevy should revert in the Budget to the strategy chosen in his second-last effort? Or if the trade unions, stung by the way in which their role in partnership has been taken for granted, fail to satisfy an increasingly frustrated membership?

And, if the Government and the unions find themselves locked in combat, what fate awaits the minorities who have neither the organisation nor the political muscle to see them through?

In a leading article this week the Examiner commented on CORI's latest publication, Resources and Choice, of which the authors say: "This is a good news story for a society more accustomed to struggle."

But, "while rejoicing in the good news, we must turn our attention to another Ireland". And the Examiner agrees:

"Waiting lists for housing are growing at an alarming rate as soaring property prices put the dream of owning their own home out of reach for many.

"Major issues of equality, healthcare, disability and the environment have yet to be addressed. Substantial numbers of people continue to live in poverty.

"Against this bleak background, CORI's case for a greater sense of fairness in the distribution of wealth and for a more even balance in Ireland's social equilibrium is irresistible."

SADLY, there are quarters inhabited by the new right and their allies in begrudgery where the case for a more even balance is all too resistible and social equilibrium counts for nothing.

Flying in the face of the research undertaken by the Economic and Social Research Institute, supporters of the new right argue that fewer than the 21 per cent established by the ESRI live in poverty.

And when they are faced with the figures, not to mention the supporting evidence of those engaged in work for the poor and for minorities, they end up attempting to differentiate between "the deserving and the undeserving poor".

This is a Victorian notion which should have been dead and buried long ago. But only the other day I heard that admirable campaigner Andy Pollak in debate with Patricia Redlich of the Sunday In- dependent and Ivor Callely of Fianna Fail on a new but related set of categories - deserving and undeserving refugees.

Refugees, however described, are among the most vulnerable and weakest minorities in the State and the Government, far from affording them protection, or showing the understanding that Irish people expect elsewhere, seems intent on making their lives as difficult as possible.

Paradoxically, in a period of extraordinary prosperity, this seems the worst of times for rational argument.

On Saturday View last week Fergal Bowers of the Irish Medical News came up with an astonishing conclusion on current fears.

He was talking about the scandals now blowing across the windy acres of public life. If this were another country, said he, there would be people on the streets.

But some 25,000 nurses were on the streets, even as he spoke, and they could well be back on the streets if the offer belatedly made by the Government doesn't prove satisfactory.

And, as if this were not enough, the State's biggest union, SIPTU, has organised a protest against tax evasion in which tens of thousands are likely to take part.

Indeed, if this weren't such a complacent society, not only the nurses and those who demand a fairer tax system but many, many more would be on the streets.

People may not be willing to participate in politics by voting - there are other ways of making their voices heard if the Government and the Opposition do not prove capable of the task.

Dick Walsh can be contacted at dwalsh@irish-times.ie