Time is closing in on Mr David Trimble and his pro-Belfast Agreement colleagues in the Ulster Unionist Party. He faces into a meeting of the party's 14-member officer board today, clinging to the prospect of that elusive basis for agreement set out by former US President, Mr Clinton, on his last visit to Ireland before Christmas. This will be followed by a meeting of the 110-member executive tomorrow where anti-agreement unionists are expected to press for stronger sanctions against Sinn Fein and a phased withdrawal from government if progress is not made on decommissioning.
With a deal on decommissioning, demilitarisation and policing still in the air, Mr Trimble will probably succeed in playing for a little more time. Reports from the rejectionists would suggest that a demand for the reconvening of the 860-member strong Ulster Unionist Council is not yet imminent. It was that body which, last October, forced Mr Trimble to place a ban on the two Sinn Fein Ministers, Mr Martin McGuinness and Ms Bairbre de Brun, from taking part in North/South Ministerial Council meetings if the IRA did not engage meaningfully with the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning. The High Court in Belfast has judged that action to be unlawful. It will be more difficult for Mr Trimble to see off his rivals next time without concrete proposals in his hand.
But, time is not only closing in on Mr Trimble but on the whole edifice of the Agreement itself. The activities of the paramilitaries are adding to the instability inside the political system in Northern Ireland. There have been no less than 49 pipe-bomb attacks on Catholic homes all over the North since the beginning of this year. That amounts to more than one attack on Catholics per night. Eighteen of the pipe-bombs have exploded. The renewed spate of violence by loyalists is provoking retaliation by dissident republicans.
These developments on the paramilitary front are, in turn, putting increased pressure on the Royal Ulster Constabulary as it grapples with the problems of transition to the new Police Service of Northern Ireland. There is severe under-staffing in the force. Some 500 officers are set to leave this spring. These include eight assistant chief constables and 12 high-ranking senior detectives. The levels of demoralisation and absenteeism are without precedent.
Yet, it is the issue of policing which is proving most intractable in the current round of negotiations with the pro-agreement parties. Irish and British Government sources are confident enough that a deal can be brokered on demilitarisation and decommissioning. The difficulties in meeting the conditions laid down by the SDLP and Sinn Fein to ensure that nationalists will sign up to the new police service have not been overcome yet. These are circumscribed by the warning from the Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, recently that if Sinn Fein was seeking to compromise his "operational responsibility" that was something he couldn't countenance. There are still high hopes, however, that common sense will prevail on policing. The deadline has been put off again - to the middle of next week. Time is closing in on the Belfast Agreement on all fronts. As if to underline the fact, yesterday Mr Tony Blair effectively launched the British general election campaign.