The national factors which could influence the outcome of the next general election are measured in the second part of the Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll published today. It provides a much more interesting snapshot of public opinion than yesterday's findings on the state of the parties and their leaders on the resumption of the Dáil.
After a two-term coalition of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats - and a Fianna Fáil-led Government for 16 of the last 18 years - there should be no surprise that a majority of voters would prefer a different coalition government after the next general election. Indeed, almost a quarter of Fianna Fáil supporters share that view. Only 29 per cent, less than one in three voters, would prefer to see the existing Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats Government returned.
What is surprising is that with the so-called Mullingar Accord being a concept rather than any form of reality, more voters would like to see a coalition combination of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party than the present Fianna Fáil/PD alternative. And one in five voters would like neither. Another point of interest, which should be noted by election strategists, is that Dublin voters are more disposed towards the opposition parties than the current Coalition parties.
The most important finding of this poll, however, is not the desire for a change of government after almost a decade of Fianna Fáil/PD governance. Fianna Fáil has successfully fostered the perception that it is the only credible party to mind Celtic Tiger Ireland. That is a new Ireland where self-interest - on such issues as economic stability, jobs, and taxes - is paramount. It determined the outcome of the last general election. This is to point out political reality rather than commend a self-centred culture.
In these circumstances, a major psychological breakthrough is registered in this poll for Fine Gael and the Labour Party as they consider a three-party alternative with the Green Party. They have broken through the trust barrier, perceived to be the ace card of Fianna Fáil and the PDs in the next campaign. The poll indicates that on the major issues confronting voters - managing the economy, controlling prices, keeping taxes low, improving the health service, managing the peace process and providing affordable and good quality childcare - the Fianna Fáil/PD coalition may have lost the advantage.
The alternative Fine Gael-led coalition scores equally, with, if not better than, the current Government on all issues with the exception of Northern Ireland. It is interesting that there is more confidence in the alternative opposition combination to improve the health service.
The big question facing voters in the next election was always going to be whether the tired old faces should be replaced by a new untried team. The challenge to the alternative is to provide a credible answer.