ANALYSIS:The Government has its Lisbon deal, but Ireland's good standing in the EU has been damaged, writes John Palmer
THE TRAUMA created for the European Union by the Irish referendum rejection of the Lisbon Treaty is reshaping Ireland's image among its EU peers - no matter that the Brussels EU summit yesterday at least opens the way for a second referendum next year. Ireland's status as a model EU member state, and a sage and much respected source of advice and counsel to new and poorer countries seeking to manage the challenges of European integration, has been seriously fractured.
Of course, there was always something slightly surreal about the elevated pedestal Ireland has occupied within the EU over the past 35 years. It was primarily the result of a fortuitous convergence of pro-European idealism and base material interest which allowed successive Irish governments to play a role and exercise an influence on the wider European stage out of all proportion to the country's size and material resources.
In future, Ireland may be still respected as a land of Euro-scholars, but it may no longer be venerated in quite the same way as a land of Euro-saints.
The debate in Ireland since the Lisbon referendum has frequently been focused on the alleged "anger" or even "outrage" felt by Ireland's EU partners at a seemingly ungrateful rejection of the country's European vocation, which had been so important in its recent prosperity.
In fact there have been surprisingly few expressions of anger and much forbearance shown by Ireland's partners as together they have sought a way through the crisis.
The most common European reaction to Ireland's unexpected rejection of a treaty seen by most EU states as a modest step towards democratic reform, has been one of amazement and bewilderment rather than anger or outrage. But what has taken other EU politicians aback most has been the far greater influence of British-style Eurosceptic thinking in Ireland than anyone previously believed to have existed.
The love affair between Declan Ganley's Libertas organisation and Europhobic right-wing British media and Conservative MPs has impacted on Irish public opinion in ways which have frankly astounded other Europeans. Only this week members of the European Parliament were pointing indignantly to the contradiction between Ganley's protestations of pro-Europeanism and his proposed political alliance with extreme right-wing Czech, French and other Eurosceptics being set up to fight the European Parliament election next June.
But this really only underlines the fact that the Irish people are fundamentally no different to those in any other EU member state in the range of attitudes they display towards the European Union and the wider issue of European integration.
The new, more questioning and more cynical trends in Irish public opinion seem to have taken the Irish political class by surprise.
But what is really baffling is why Irish political parties imagined that little more than a pro forma appeal to vote Yes in the referendum would suffice to reassure, let alone, inspire voters. Second time round, pro-Europeans are going to have to learn to engage, in depth as well as in detail, with the case for Europe in the world today.
Sadly, the Lisbon Treaty debacle points up another phenomenon which is widespread throughout the European Union: the lamentably poor quality of political leadership. A generation of politicians has come to power in most EU countries whose horizons are narrowly domestic.
Too often they lack the understanding, the imagination or the motivation to win support for the European policies which are desperately needed to manage the sometimes alarming manifestations of modern global interdependence.
It is also important to see the continuing drama over Ireland's future role within the European Union in its wider context.
A second rejection of the treaty by Irish voters would without doubt send the EU into a political crisis with consequences which could be more far-reaching than most commentators within Ireland have so far understood.
The Irish Lisbon debate itself is now overshadowed by the genuinely frightening global storm clouds which seem to presage a possible world slump rather than a mere temporary downturn. As the European Council meeting in Brussels this week has demonstrated, EU governments now have to confront the global economic crisis and the even more daunting challenge of irreversible climate change simultaneously.
The global credit crunch has accelerated an already existing shift in the pattern of geo-political power from the United States to Asia and - to a lesser extent - to South America. Above all, the breathtaking collapse of the American financial system, combined with the Bush presidency's foreign policy catastrophes, have created a global power vacuum within which the EU must work out its future international role.
Given the scale and urgency of these challenges, embracing possible global depression, climate change and a myriad of threats to security, most other EU states will want to act together more closely than ever in future. They will do so with or without the Lisbon Treaty.
However, in the absence of the treaty, European co-operation risks being increasingly led - and its terms dictated - by a small number of the large states.
Without a treaty which enshrines the equality of rights between countries, the large may increasingly bypass or ignore the smaller or more reluctant member states.
Without the reinforcement of democracy contained in the treaty, a European Union risks increasingly being run by an unaccountable directoire by the big states.
If there is a second No vote in Ireland, there may be other more immediate and more tangible impacts on Ireland. In 2010 there will have to be a general election in Britain.
Current opinion polls suggest this may well result in a Conservative government. But we know that if the Lisbon Treaty fails, the UK will demand a widespread, root-and-branch renegotiation of some of the fundamental terms for British membership of the European Union.
This would almost certainly touch issues of great importance to Ireland, such as agriculture, social policy and the financing of the EU budget.
This renegotiation is designed, in the eyes of many British Tory politicians, to lead to the UK moving outside the core of the European Union. The results could mean that Ireland, whose interests are closely intertwined with the neighbouring island, would be faced with some unpalatable choices - Europe or the UK. Indeed, this choice may encourage some of those who oppose the Lisbon Treaty today, to argue for Ireland to join a Tory-led Britain on the further margins of the European Union.
Maybe that is why some British Conservatives have humorously suggested that Declan Ganley and his supporters should not worry about such a prospect since Ireland could always apply to join the British Commonwealth!
Conversely, ratification of the treaty would make it almost impossible for a new British Conservative government to call UK participation in the EU into question in such a fundamental way. This is why we can expect the British Eurosceptic media circulating in Ireland to work itself up into an ever more hysterical campaign in support of the No campaign in a second referendum.
Awareness that the world has become a less predictable and potentially more hazardous place is leading other Europeans, currently outside the EU, to redouble their efforts to join. These not only include the Ukraine, Georgia and others in eastern Europe but also Iceland, whose isolated exposure to the new, harsh financial environment has been painfully instructive. The ultimate irony would be that as more Europeans press to come ever closer to the centre of the European Union, Ireland might be led, small step by small step, to Europe's margins.
John Palmer is a writer and commentator on European Union affairs. He was founding political director of the European Policy Centre in Brussels and, before that, European editor of the Guardian newspaper. He now serves on the advisory boards of EU think-tanks in a number of countries