Inside Politics:The formation of the next government is turning out to be a more complicated affair than most people thought on the day of the election count, writes Stephen Collins.
The shape of any new Fianna Fáil-led coalition is still far from clear as it is impossible to distinguish genuine approaches to potential partners from feints designed to sow confusion.
There is not even any absolute certainty that Bertie Ahern will be elected for his third term as Taoiseach on June 14th despite his party's strong election performance.
Enda Kenny has followed up his own party's stunning 20-seat gain by making things as difficult as he can for Ahern and he still harbours dreams of being able to persuade the Progressive Democrats to switch sides.
Last weekend there was no obvious reason why the surviving two PD deputies should even contemplate the risk of trying to put a Fine Gael-led government in place.
On Monday, however, the Mahon tribunal set the clock ticking again on the potential time bomb that underpins Ahern's personal finances. It is something the PDs will have to factor into their decision on coalition options.
While PD president Tom Parlon was anxious to let all and sundry know that he wants to get back into power with Fianna Fáil as quickly as possible, the acting leader Mary Harney moved quickly to disown him and make it clear she will not be rushed.
Parlon got more than a slap on the wrist for his presumption in attempting to close off options for the party on Thursday.
At one level the PDs have been incredibly lucky to be in a pivotal position for the formation of government once more after such an electoral disaster. As happened on the previous two occasions when the party suffered a meltdown, in 1989 and 1997, the survivors have ended up with a strong hand to negotiate their way into government.
The other side of the coin is that the PDs have been put in a terribly invidious position. Last October and again during the election campaign the party remained in coalition with Fianna Fáil on the basis of assurances from the Taoiseach about his personal finances which subsequently proved unreliable.
Early in the campaign it emerged that the party had not been told the full story last October. The PDs suffered a dose of the wobbles and only calmed down when Ahern issued a detailed statement. Then last Monday the Mahon tribunal lawyers suggested that Ahern's revised account of the circumstances in which he purchased his home did not stand up to scrutiny. Doing a deal having been fooled not once but twice may be hard for the PDs to justify to themselves.
Fine Gael has been trying to convince the PDs that there is another option. Between them, Fine Gael, Labour and the Greens have 77 seats and if the two PDs are added in, the total comes up to 79, one more than Fianna Fáil.
The problem is that the support of all five Independents would be required on top of that. Persuading the two socialists, two former Fianna Fáilers and the former Fine Gael minister Michael Lowry, to line up together to support a four-party coalition, would be some feat.
The potential for instability inherent in such an arrangement would be an obvious deterrent when it comes to persuading all the Independents into line. Even assuming that Labour and the PDs could sort out their differences on major issues such as the co-location of new hospitals, the obstacles to the formation of such a multicoloured rainbow would still be formidable.
Fianna Fáil's move to begin direct negotiations with the Greens was an indication that Ahern is trying to cover all the angles. At the very least it was designed to put pressure on the PDs and to demonstrate to them that Fianna Fáil has a range of options open to it, given its 78 Dáil seats. With six Dáil seats, the Greens have the capacity to do a deal with Fianna Fáil on their own and cut the PDs out of the equation.
Although Ahern indicated last weekend that his preference was for a deal involving Fianna Fáil, the PDs and "like-minded" Independents, he also said that he wanted an arrangement that would provide stability. The PDs and Independents would leave Ahern with a precarious Dáil majority that could be tested by further tribunal revelations or by straightforward political and economic issues.
It appears that Ahern has already become irritated by some of the Independents. According to Fianna Fáil sources, Beverley Flynn met the Taoiseach on Wednesday and asked him for a ministry as the price of her support. Ahern was said to be less than impressed. Dublin Independent Finian McGrath has given the Taoiseach's programme manager, Gerry Hickey, a document outlining his priorities but Fianna Fáil ministers are becoming irritated by his high-profile bargaining.
McGrath is a close associate of fellow Dublin left-wing Independent, Tony Gregory, who is a constituency rival of the Taoiseach and has not been contacted to date. Ahern may well be reluctant to give anything to such a long-standing constituency opponent. Jackie Healy-Rae and Michael Lowry are likely to couch any demands in more acceptable terms to Ahern but both men could just as easily vote for Enda Kenny if they thought he was actually going to pull it off.
Given the difficulties involved in trying to manage five Independents, the Taoiseach is said to be giving serious consideration to the option of forgetting about them altogether and going for a three-party deal involving the PDs and the Greens. Such a coalition would have 86 seats and would be in a strong position to survive the political storms ahead.
One of the problems, though, is that while the Greens really want to be in power, they are also extremely nervous about being dragged into the tribunal mire. The issue of standards in public life is key for the Greens and they are acutely conscious of how the PDs have suffered on this over the past year.
The other side of that coin is that some people in Fianna Fáil have no confidence in the Greens to stick it out if the going gets tough.
Before the election, the consensus was that Sinn Féin could have a pivotal role to play in the formation of Government and the party even established a negotiating team in advance.
The loss of a seat in Dublin and the failure to take even one new seat came as a stunning setback. As no other party will negotiate with it, Sinn Féin's four TDs are expected to abstain on the vote for Taoiseach.
All of which means that for every single one of the Dáil parties, with the exception of Sinn Féin, and for all of the Independents, everything is still there to play for between this bank holiday weekend and the first meeting of the 30th Dáil on June 14th. In that sense, the election has thrown up the most uncertain result since 1987.
On that occasion Fianna Fáil had 81 seats but Charles Haughey declared that he was not going to do a deal with anyone. When the Dáil met there were 82 committed votes against Haughey as against 81 for him. The first move was to appoint one of the Independents, former Labour TD Seán Treacy, as the Ceann Comhairle to avoid taking one of the precious Fianna Fáil votes out of the equation.
With Treacy ensconced in the chair, the vote for Taoiseach followed. It ended in a tie with the late Neil Blaney supporting Haughey to give him 82 votes with the same number voting against him. Gregory abstained, the Ceann Comhairle then gave his casting vote for Haughey and he was Taoiseach again.
The appointment of a Ceann Comhairle could again be pivotal to the outcome of the current impasse. There has been speculation that Fianna Fáil will try and entice one of the Labour TDs to take it to smooth the way for Ahern's re-election. However, Fine Gael may equally try and persuade Rory O'Hanlon to remain in the chair to help Kenny's chances.
The general expectation is that the uncertainty will have been cleared up by June 14th, with an arrangement for government in place before the Dáil meets.
At this stage it is impossible to be sure what that arrangement will be.