Trimble sets the pre-election sparks flying

David Trimble lit the fuse to what will be a powder-keg election in Northern Ireland before Tony Blair even had a chance to declare…

David Trimble lit the fuse to what will be a powder-keg election in Northern Ireland before Tony Blair even had a chance to declare that the Westminster contest was officially started.

No New Labour certainties here, so create sparks quickly. That was the tactic. This is the most intriguing, strategically important and exciting contest the North has experienced since the days of Sunningdale, more than a quarter of a century ago.

Election 2001, if we may use that title, incorporates the Westminster and local elections. One theatre of political war, two elections and five major battles, all of them very important, all of them key in determining how the Belfast Agreement will evolve. Who could not be interested?

It can be distilled as: nationalism seeking to chip further chunks off the shortening unionist majority; the SDLP versus Sinn Fein; the Ulster Unionist Party pitted against the DUP; Yes politicians against No politicians; and David Trimble fighting for his leadership.

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As ever, most pressure is on the Ulster Unionist leader. This explains why, to use Sinn Fein's description, he dropped a "hand grenade or time-bomb" into the political works in the Assembly yesterday morning. Another post-dated resignation letter, this time for July 1st, if the IRA doesn't do the necessary on its arms.

Sinn Fein has expressed outrage at this "stunt" while the SDLP has satisfied itself with mere annoyance. The British and Irish governments shiver at the idea of deadlines, but they understand the real-politik.

In truth, no one should be surprised at this manoeuvre. Had a deal been done on IRA arms, demilitarisation and policing ahead of the election, as appeared possible, then this step might have been avoided.

Without this deal, all Mr Trimble had going into Election 2001 was the argument that devolution is working and perhaps outstanding issues, particularly arms, might be resolved in the two or three weeks after the election.

Ian Paisley, Peter Robinson, Robert McCartney and their anti-agreement allies would have hammered him daily as a weak leader. They'll hammer him anyway, but at least Mr Trimble will have some ammunition of his own with which to retaliate.

With Drumcree and another possible leadership heave against him looming, July 1st was already serving as a deadline. The ultimatum will queer the negotiating pitch certainly, but a deal is either there or it's not.

This way, at least, Mr Trimble can act macho with Dr Paisley. When the counts are completed it will be up to the two governments to try to persuade Mr Trimble to lift or fudge his ultimatum.

At present the UUP has nine Westminster seats. It is facing serious challenges in North Belfast, West Tyrone and Strangford. It must mount stout defences in Fermanagh-South Tyrone, East Derry, South Belfast and even in Mr Trimble's home constituency of Upper Bann.

If Lady Sylvia Hermon gets the nod at the selection convention for North Down tonight, it has a chance of taking Robert McCartney's seat. David Burnside could win back South Antrim for the UUP at the expense of William McCrea of the DUP.

Obviously, there are more negatives than pluses for Mr Trimble, but this gamble may convince moderate unionists that he is not yet a busted flush. It's also crucial for him that he forges a deal with the Alliance Party, which, if it withdraws from Strangford, North Down and South Antrim, would provide the UUP with a reasonable chance of taking these seats.

The test for Mr Trimble is to be able to argue when the counts are completed that a sizeable or significant proportion of unionism still supports the agreement.

Perhaps his leadership is doomed in any event and after the election a deal will not be possible, and the agreement will go into review, with or without suspension.

This is the DUP's big chance, and Ian Paisley and his master tactician, Peter Robinson, know it. If the DUP increases its share of the seats from three to six, as is possible, and does well in the local elections - it won only 92 council seats against the UUP's 186 in 1997 - then Dr Paisley will insist that Yes unionism is in disarray.

It's much more straightforward with the SDLP and Sinn Fein. The battle is for the nationalist top dog spot. Since Bobby Sands and the hunger-strikes of 1981 propelled Sinn Fein into serious politics, the republican line has been steadily rising on the electoral graph.

The SDLP has maintained its strength at around 20-22 per cent, but Sinn Fein has been steadily creeping up to about 18 per cent. The SDLP has exhibited some political smarts by parachuting Brid Rodgers into West Tyrone to try to take the seat from Willie Thompson, where Sinn Fein vice-president Pat Doherty will also be a formidable opponent.

The SDLP will be delighted if it can increase its Westminster representation from three to four. Equally Sinn Fein should be content if it can add an extra seat to those held by Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness.

At local level, no quarter will be given as Sinn Fein seeks to close the gap on its nationalist rival. In the last locals the SDLP won 119 seats against 74 for Sinn Fein, which will try to exploit Mr Trimble's deadline to its advantage by claiming unionist discrimination against republicans.

Alliance will seek some pay-off from the UUP at local level if it pulls out of Strangford, North Down and South Antrim. It will be satisfied if it can hold on to the 41 seats it won in the local elections of 1997. The Ulster Democratic Party, the Progressive Unionist Party and the Women's Coalition will attempt to make inroads at local government level.

When the votes are counted, Northern Ireland will experience a further shift in the political balance which will have implications for the future of the agreement. Just how seismic or minor the alterations to the political fault lines are will depend on just how good are the four main parties in winning and swinging votes.

Gerry Moriarty is Northern Editor of The Irish Times