In a commentary written shortly before his death, David Ervineargued it would be a travesty for the peace process to fail now
It is hard to tell just where we are at the moment with the tug of jaw that is going on between the DUP and Sinn Féin. Both are supposed to have serious internal dissent to contend with. Both will, due to that perception, plead with the prime minister to understand that they are running at maximum risk levels.
Alas, it would be foolish to assume that each side is feigning difficulty merely as a negotiation tactic. Yes I have no doubt that it is a usable issue - Trimble and Adams were at it all the time. Now is the endgame!
The reality is stark for supporters who never thought that it would come to this, realising a new phase of partnership and co-operation is going to replace the belligerence so enjoyed by each. So far, the Shinners could get away with unpopular things as long as whatever they did cracked the unionists up. On the other hand, the DUP could be seen as reasonable as long as the Shinners were perceived not to be able to come up to the required mark.
Ian Paisley and Gerry Adams will be very conscious of their own internal difficulties. They will also be factoring issues that will not be in the minds of the party functionaries. For instance, what is the price for blame? What is the alternative? What is the consequence of failure?
The real mood within our community is proving hard to read. There are few signs that the voter is particularly exercised by the possibility of a deal.
The mood seems to me to be actually very calm. Those old enough will remember the anger and bitterness abroad over the years when some initiative or another was mooted. Thankfully, those days seem gone.
In recent times we've seen how both sides, while quietly negotiating, have almost let on that they are not negotiating. The DUP have been particularly guilty in this respect.
St Andrews was built around the two protagonists - to the virtual exclusion of all others. Devolution and policing stood out, with requirements expected from both sides. It seems to have gone downhill from then. If the DUP agreed devolution, Sinn Féin would sign up to policing. Sounds simple, doesn't it? Clearly not!
The DUP won't accept Sinn Féin in government until they sign up to policing. The Shinners can't sign up, it would seem, until a target date for the devolution of police and justice powers has been agreed by all. Chicken and egg? You bet!
Meanwhile we all sit and wait. The British government could legislate for such a target date. The problem with that possibility is that if the DUP, who expect to be the largest party, didn't agree, the government would be forced to write in a destabilising sanction along the lines of suspending the Assembly in the event the date was not met.
Stop/start is nothing new to us. However, if such a sanction were created, the potential is that the whole focus for the foreseeable future would be upon policing and justice - and little else. The belligerence would be centre stage. Every crackpot outside the peace process would hold the future in their hands rather than in the hands of elected representatives.
The next phase of the peace process is parliamentary democracy. It would be a travesty to get stuck at this point. It has taken a long time to ensure that politics takes primacy over paramilitarism. The establishment of the Assembly is absolutely vital to finish the job. Other factors - such as taking responsibility for health, education and the economy etc - are pressing. Being stuck where we are for any length of time is unthinkable.
The endgame was always going to shake up the republican movement and its supporters. It is, after all, the final acceptance by republicans of Northern Ireland as a viable and integral part of the UK. It is also the final acceptance by republicans that no authority other than state authority is either practicable or tolerable. It is worth consideration that if Adams pulls it off at the ardfheis, a real line in history will have been drawn.
Quite a number of options exist in the political process if the DUP help create a date for the devolution of policing and justice and the position of Sinn Féin is proving dubious. Given the prize that is on offer for this society, it would be a shame if it were stalled and undermined. Put it up to the Shinners! They will have a substantial management project because of the challenge. From my point of view I hope Adams pulls it off. We, the unionists, should facilitate him to do so.
Either the DUP and Sinn Féin are going to fulfil the promise of St Andrews or they are not. Recently the prime minister made the point that if no agreement emerged around the disputed issue then the proposed election of March 7th would not take place. The concept of deadline has been examined before. The prime minister should now make it an absolute deadline that must be met. The normal convention is that four weeks before an election, the Assembly would be dissolved. February 7th should be the deadline. Make it and stick to it!
The cause of peace does not rest with two parties alone. If the plug is pulled on the Assembly, the next step is clear. We just start all over again! In such circumstances, let's hope plan B doesn't pollute things too much.
This article first appeared in yesterday's Belfast Telegraph