Post-Mahon questions over the Taoiseach's fitness for office - or otherwise - are set to dominate the resumption of Dáil business, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
A motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach, following his Mahon tribunal appearance, is likely to dominate the early days of the new Dáil session. It is the only logical outcome to the expressions of disbelief in Bertie Ahern's tribunal evidence voiced by Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore over the past 48 hours.
Senior Government colleagues have been rallying to the Taoiseach's defence over the same period, and the Greens have bunkered down with their partners in Government. That means that there is no prospect of any fractures opening up in the Coalition, but the Opposition parties have little choice but to follow through, given the strength of their criticisms.
Motions of no confidence are not put down lightly. The last one in the Government was seven years ago, while the last one in a taoiseach was back in November 1994. That motion of confidence in Albert Reynolds came after a very public rift with Dick Spring and it led to the collapse of the Fianna Fáil-Labour coalition.
Ironically, the complicated financial transactions conducted by Ahern, which form the basis of the Mahon tribunal investigations, took place in the immediate aftermath of that no-confidence debate which led to the departure of Reynolds as taoiseach. Ahern took over as Fianna Fáil leader with the expectation of becoming taoiseach and that triggered the arrangements that led him to take a house in Beresford Avenue in Drumcondra.
Fine Gael and Labour shied away from a no-confidence motion when the story about Ahern's personal finances first broke 12 months ago. Many in both parties now regret that they did not push it all the way on that occasion, as they gained nothing by pulling their punches in the light of the Taoiseach's personal popularity.
This time around the new Labour leader, Eamon Gilmore, raised the stakes immediately the Taoiseach finished his tribunal evidence on Monday evening. Yesterday he went a step further by saying Ahern had not given a credible explanation about his financial affairs and it would be best for the country if he resigned immediately.
Gilmore is not given to hyperbole and his comments indicate that he is preparing to push the issue as far as it can go in the political arena. Enda Kenny followed up by saying that he did not personally believe Ahern's account of his financial transactions. The Fine Gael front bench will meet this morning to consider tactics but a motion of no confidence in Ahern appears inevitable. The only question is whether the Opposition parties will table it today or wait for a week or two.
The normal practice is that when a motion of no confidence is tabled in the Taoiseach, or the Government, the immediate response is a counter-motion from the Government seeking a vote of confidence. This normally takes precedence over all other Dáil business so that if the Opposition makes its move today, the counter-motion from the Government is likely to be debated immediately.
The political advantage for the Opposition in moving now is that they will force the Fianna Fáil members of the Cabinet and, more pertinently, the Greens and the PDs to back Ahern, even though a clear majority of the public does not believe the account he has given to the tribunal, going on the most recent opinion poll.
The other side of the coin, though, is that while a majority of the public may not believe Ahern, they continue to back him regardless, so Fine Gael and Labour could suffer a backlash for attacking him. Government Ministers, including the Green Party's Trevor Sargent, have already accused the Opposition of opportunism. The Greens, who were the most vocal critics of Bertie Ahern on the issue of his personal finances before the election, are now happy to utter the mantra of Fianna Fáil Ministers that everybody should wait until the tribunal reports, although that may not happen for years.
Opposition politicians maintain there is a world of difference between the tribunal process and politics. Liam Lawlor was expelled from Fianna Fáil before any finding was made on his tribunal evidence, and both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael instituted their own internal inquiries into the activities of county councillors in Dublin following on from evidence given at the planning tribunal.
It is inevitable that tribunal evidence should become the stuff of political debate. The Opposition parties cannot simply ignore what they have heard, but they will not necessarily be thanked by the voters for their trouble. "The truly depressing thing is that going on last Sunday's opinion poll, a huge number of people think, rightly or wrongly, that Mr Ahern committed perjury but they are not pushed about it. Where do you go from there," said one Labour politician.
By putting down a motion of no confidence, the Opposition will give themselves a platform to explain to the public where they believe Ahern's story does not add up and what the significance of that is.
To date, enormous confusion has been created about the various financial transactions in which he was involved. It means that while some people may not believe the Taoiseach's version of events, many don't believe it really matters.
If they go for broke, Fine Gael and Labour will have to point up clear contradictions in the account Ahern has given about his finances over the past 12 months.
If they fail to do that, public support for Ahern may increase rather than diminish.
The other side of the coin is that Government Ministers will have to come up with convincing reasons why people should continue to back the Taoiseach.
Partisans of Fianna Fáil and the Opposition parties will be slow to change preconceived opinions on the issue.
The big question is the impact it will have on others, particularly Green Party and PD supporters, who have made such an issue of standards in public office in the past.